Altcoin Season, XPL’s Round Trip & Aster’s Next Stop!

It seems the crypto market got the memo about Uptober, with green candles abundant as Q4 got underway. This week’s newsletter looks at why September wasn’t as bad as many had feared and why the recent US government shutdown has given our bags a lift up.

You’ll also find a deep dive into one of the most anticipated token launches of the year, as we reveal the reasons why the launch of Plasma’s XPL token didn’t quite meet expectations, but why there may also be greener days ahead for the project.

And, speaking of hype, you’ll have doubtless been aware of all the fuss about Aster, the new perps DEX with some powerful backing that’s looking to dethrone Hyperliquid. Well, we’ve got a full beginner’s guide for you on how to use the platform and make the most of what it has to offer. Anyone for a cheeky 1001x?

🚀 Aster la Vista Baby 🚀

If you thought crypto’s powers that be were going to sit back and watch Hyperliquid eat their lunch forever, then you underestimated how cutthroat this industry is. Sooner or later, the big boys were certain to come out swinging.

And so it is that Aster, a new perps DEX backed by CZ and reportedly run by ex-Binance staff, has come out of stealth to dominate mindshare and bring Hyperliquid down a peg or two. Aster’s metrics have been going up and to the right, its token price has gone ballistic and it’s rocking some crazy features that CZ and co hope will make it the degens’ new favourite hangout.

But, what’s it like to use and does it live up to its billing? Well, in today’s video, we introduce you to Aster, and give you the complete guide to getting started there. From lunatic levels of leverage to betting on the stock market 24/7, we tell you everything you need to know about this new kid on the block. Oh, and there’s an amazing offer that’s only for Coin Bureau viewers too. What are you waiting for?

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

September was a green month for both Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole (see the TOTAL chart). Many were surprised by this, given that September has historically been a bearish month for both crypto and stocks. In retrospect, it’s not that surprising, and that’s because the dynamics that caused the so-called September Effect were muted or even nonexistent this year.

For context, it’s believed that the reason why September is bearish is because of institutional flows. In short, institutional investors return from summer vacation, see their investments have rallied, they take some profits, and the result is that markets fall. The catch is that this time, most of the flows in the market were reportedly coming from retail investors, not institutions.

The result this time was that September was a bullish month for both stocks and crypto. This begs the question of why ‘Uptober’ happens. As you might have guessed, it’s the same answer: institutional flows. Institutional investors chase trends into year-end to ensure they have a green Q4 for clients. The catch here is that most institutions have been underinvested since April.

As such, the result is likely to be an even more explosive October, and this is also supported by historical crypto trends wherein a bullish September was followed by an even more bullish October. But of course, rallies require bullish catalysts. As you might have noticed, the markets interpreted last week’s US government shutdown as bullish, which kicked off the recent rally.

This begs another question though, and that’s why US government shutdowns have historically been bullish for the markets. The answer appears to be the effect of US government shutdowns on the US dollar, specifically the DXY. Historically speaking, the DXY fell as a result of government shutdowns. So far, the DXY hasn’t moved much, but this could change very soon.

That’s because there’s another catalyst related to the shutdown that could occur at any moment, maybe even by the time you read this newsletter. That’s the mass layoffs of federal employees, which is apparently imminent. This would weaken the DXY due to both a loss of confidence in the US and the negative economic impact of the layoffs being priced in.

And, as you may know, the DXY going down typically means everything else going up, particularly risk assets like small cap stocks and altcoins. That’s simply because most of the money in circulation is technically debt, and most of the debt is denominated in US dollars. When the DXY falls, debts increase, especially if there’s a drop in bond yields, as we’ve seen.

But obviously, these are just the catalysts on the macro side. As it so happens, there are some very exciting catalysts coming up on the crypto side too. For starters, we have the UK allowing retail investors to access crypto ETPs starting this Wednesday. The timing couldn’t be better, as crypto is already rallying. This means these ETPs could see a surge in retail inflows.

Then, we have the pending approval of close to half a dozen spot altcoin ETFs in the US. While it’s true that the SEC will probably not approve these during the US government shutdown (per their recent notice), chances are approving spot altcoin ETFs will be one of the first things the SEC gets done once the shutdown is over. It’s not currently clear when that could be though.

There are also a bunch of catalysts more specific to individual crypto projects, such as Solana starting to ship its recently-announced gaming device, and World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin launching on Aptos. There could also be some buzz around the upcoming launch of CME futures for Solana and XRP, though this will only take place the week after next.

In sum, the next week is likely to be bullish for both stocks and crypto. This doesn’t mean it’s going to be up only, but it does mean it’s likely to be up mostly. Given that sentiment in stocks and crypto remains low, it suggests there’s still a lot of room to run.

📉 XPL Launch 📉

Plasma’s $XPL token has just seen one of the more volatile launch weeks in terms of price action.

In case you missed it, the token rallied almost 120% from pre-market prices less than 48 hours after launch - only to dump by 50% over the next four days. While some would call this a healthy correction, the ten consecutive red candles on the four-hour chart would cast doubt in anyone’s mind.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that much of the pre-TGE euphoria for $XPL quickly morphed into FUD. In fact, anywhere you looked on Crypto X, there were accusations that the team was “ex-Blast” and that they were dumping tokens on the open market via market makers in an elaborate exit scam.

For what it’s worth, Paul, the founder of Plasma, made a post categorically denying any team or insider selling. He reiterated that the team’s $XPL allocation was vested for three years with a one-year cliff. He also pointed out that just three out of its 50 employees had spent time at Blur or Blast. He noted that other members of the team also come from Google, Facebook, Square, Temasek, Goldman Sachs, and Nuvei. He also clarified that the team has not engaged Wintermute as a market maker, or for any of their other services.

In truth, much of the dump was the result of profit-booking and long liquidations as traders FOMO-ed in around $1.7. On that note, it’s worth remembering that over half the current circulating supply was sold at a $500M valuation in an ICO a few months ago. Participants in that sale were sitting at a profit 35 times their initial investment when $XPL was trading at $1.7.

Considering most had a $2 price target to book profits, it’s understandable why market makers like Wintermute front-ran their profit strategy. When you combine this with broader market weakness in the days prior, it’s easy to see why holders folded into booking profits early. Not to mention, many of the pre-sale participants and vault depositors received an additional $10K worth of XPL.

Onchain data backs up this conclusion. Much of the volume during the dump came in the first six hours, suggesting heavy profit booking from smart money. The dump thereafter is likely the result of early retail investors derisking during a wave of FUD and sentiment weakness. When you factor in market fatigue from most post-TGE investors likely chasing $XPL as a beta play to $ASTER, it makes sense that $XPL’s decline correlated with $ASTER’s poor price performance.

That said, from a fundamental perspective, nothing much has changed. Plasma is still one of the top stablecoin chains to have a functional mainnet. DeFi incentives are steady and we will likely see an increase in onchain users over the coming days. Plasma One (the neobank product of Plasma) only serves to further the onboarding of users. It’s a beta play to Tether, having been backed by both Bitfinex and Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. Given that Tether is looking to raise funds at $500B valuation, attention to Tether-aligned projects should continue going up. By all accounts, Plasma should continue to remain as one of the top ‘stablecoin’ plays of this cycle.

In our opinion, the odds of $XPL experiencing another rally higher in the coming days are quite high. At the time of writing, $XPL is sitting comfortably at a price of $0.91, trading between a range of $0.85 to $1 over the past three days. It seems to be forming a price floor around $0.88. With much of the FUD out of the way, we suspect an entry at current levels will likely mark the bottom – though there’s a small chance we could revisit pre-market prices of $0.76 before reversing course completely. This trade will be invalidated if we close below pre-market price levels. Nevertheless, we think it’s much too early to count $XPL out. May the odds be in your favour.

🔥 Hot Deal Of The Week 🔥

With altcoins seemingly springing to life, now might be a good time to level up your altcoin knowledge. That’s exactly why we created the Coin Bureau Club.

Here’s what Club members get access to:

* Access to CoinBureau team members personal portfolios
* Exclusive small and mid cap altcoin reviews
* Ability to vote on the altcoins we cover
* See what’s on our researchers minds in our research feed
* Exclusive members Discord
* Access to exclusive deals

But, you will have to move quickly! In the next few weeks, the club will be undergoing an upgrade and an increase in prices! If you sign up now you’ll lock in today’s price.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Keep Crypto Safe: How to buy, store and protect your crypto?
* Gold Silver Miners: With metal prices surging - what is the impact on miners?
* Market Manipulation: How it works and how to protect yourself?
* AI Trading Video: The rise of AI trading assistants and their pros and cons!
* Commercial Real Estate: The brewing $20 trillion crisis and why defaults are up?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Aster DEX Explained: 1001x Perps, Hidden Orders, Stock Perps, Tokenomics
* Pi Network in 2025: Mobile Mining Explained, Legitimacy, Price, and How It Might Reach Real Liquidity
* Comprehensive Bitget Wallet Review: Features, Security, and Real User Experiences
* Is KuCoin Safe in 2025? Security, Legal, Risks
* Cash Out on Coinbase in 2025: Exact Steps, Fees, Limits and Speed

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Altcoin season is coming and now is the time to make strong conviction bets.

"Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.." - Jeff Bezos

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.