Even as much of the world is beginning to go into holiday mode, there’s still plenty going on in the crypto space. Today’s forward guidance looks at the possibility of a Santa Rally bringing some cheer to the end of a tough year and whether the worst of the tax-related selling may be over. And, we also take a look at what factors might be sufficient to get crypto firing again in 2026.
Whilst we’re looking forward, we must also look back on what has been a truly memorable year (though not always for the right reasons). So, we’re going back over the predictions we made for 2025 to see what we got right, what we got… not so right… and what we got completely wrong. Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing?
🖥️ The Quantum Menace? 🖥️
The spectre of a quantum computer that’s capable of cracking Bitcoin’s encryption is living rent-free in the heads of a lot of crypto holders these days. Every time a headline appears heralding another breakthrough in the field, the industry shudders in horror at the thought of all that BTC just waiting to be stolen by whoever gets to quantum supremacy first.
But, should we really be worried? Or, are we getting all worked up over nothing? The answer, as you’ve probably guessed, lies somewhere in the middle. In today’s video, we comb through a new report from a16z crypto that digs into the quantum computing narrative and gives us the truth behind the headlines. The report covers some crucial definitions that we all need to understand, examines just how serious a threat it is to crypto and gives some vital recommendations as to how the industry can prepare for the arrival of this intriguing and yes, slightly terrifying new technology.
You can watch that video here.
📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈
At the end of December and the start of January, markets have historically experienced larger returns compared to other periods of the year. This positive seasonality is referred to as the Santa Rally and, like all seasonality in the market, it fundamentally depends on institutional flows. As such, whether we get a Santa Rally this week depends on what institutions have been doing lately.
Well, according to multiple investors and market analysts, institutional investors have supposedly been increasing their exposure to stocks heading into year-end. This is apparently because they want their clients to see that they were holding some of the top performing names at the end of the year. If this is the case, then it suggests that a Santa Rally is likely, but of course, this only applies to stocks.
When it comes to crypto, most of the flows still come from retail investors. In this case there’s a different kind of seasonality at play, and that’s the four-year cycle and Christmas. In short, most retail investors in crypto expected the market to top in November or December. At the same time, the main reason why retail investors buy crypto is to try and make some extra money, which is needed around Christmas time.
Obviously, November and December were very bad for crypto, and the result is that many retail investors probably sold their holdings. Whereas it’s common practice among institutional investors to sell your strongest performers, it’s common practice among retail investors to sell your weakest performers. Either way, it means selling crypto, which explains why prices struggled in early December.
That said, there is an institutional factor that could have contributed to the sell pressure crypto experienced over the last few weeks, and that’s tax-loss harvesting. To quickly recap, tax-loss harvesting is when investors, typically institutions, sell their worst-performing assets at the end of the year to reduce their tax bill. Given that crypto performed poorly in 2025, it was a natural candidate for tax-loss selling.
If this is the case, then it means that most of the selling pressure from institutional investors and retail investors is likely over, both in stocks and in crypto. Meanwhile, crypto traders have been aggressively shorting the market, understandably expecting lower lows as a result of the price action since October. As a cherry on top, liquidity in the markets tends to be low over the holidays, especially in crypto.
Sprinkle in liquidity from the Treasury General Account and from the Fed’s ‘not QE’ QE, and you have a recipe for a sizable Santa Rally in both stocks and crypto. In crypto’s case, all it could take is a little bit of buying pressure for prices to take off, given the crypto and macro backdrop. This liquidity could very well come from retail traders getting a few hundred dollars for Christmas and deciding to ape into crypto.
Realistically though, the crypto market is unlikely to see any significant gains until the start of next year. This is partially because that’s when investors are likely to reallocate to the assets they sold in the prior year, and partially because that’s when there will be catalysts that are likely to bring attention and capital to crypto. The main one to watch out for is the CLARITY Act, which is expected to be reviewed in January.
If the GENIUS Act is anything to go by, crypto prices could begin rallying before the CLARITY Act is passed, and could continue rallying even after it’s passed. Consider that the GENIUS Act was the only bullish crypto catalyst that managed to have a profound impact on crypto prices in 2025. Since the CLARITY Act is a similar catalyst, chances are that the crypto market will experience similar price action.
In sum then, the Santa Rally is likely to happen, but it could be more focused on stocks than crypto for now. The good news is that any selling pressure related to retail capitulation or cash raising and institutional tax-loss harvesting is over. This means that next week should be neutral for crypto, and it could be bullish if retail investors get enough cash for Christmas to squeeze the shorts. In Santa we trust.
🏁 2025 Predictions Reviewed! 🏁
Come December, you have everyone in crypto rushing to make predictions about how the next year could play out for the industry, including us.
But very few take stock of how their predictions for the current year have played out – which is why we’re going to roll back the tape on our ‘2025 Crypto Predictions’ video to see exactly how many we got right or wrong.
To give you a quick recap, we made a total of 10 predictions for 2025.
After crunching the numbers, it seems like we got 3 of them spot on, 4 half-right and 3 completely wrong. For what it is worth, we were directionally right on almost all our predictions, though we failed to forecast the exact impact or specifics of how they played out.
The ones we got completely right were: crypto (specifically stablecoin payments) seeing mass adoption; more countries mining BTC; and a major hack or event causing a market crash.
To elaborate, we claimed crypto would see true mass adoption in 2025. Specifically, we believed that crypto would be used for more than just speculation, highlighting stablecoin payments as a key driver of this adoption. Well, true to our prediction, stablecoins were one of the fastest-growing crypto niches in 2025.
A TRM Labs report highlights that stablecoins accounted for 30% of all crypto transaction volume between January and July 2025. The report also notes that stablecoins reached their highest-ever annual transaction volume in 2025, with leading stablecoins increasing their share of the crypto market by 52%. Data from DeFillama also shows that the total market cap of stablecoins has doubled since last year.
Similarly, payment products like crypto debit and credit cards have been seeing increased adoption this year. Data from Dune shows that volumes for crypto card payments have been steadily increasing each month, with card volumes reaching over $400 million in November this year. For context, this marks a 5x increase from January this year, which recorded roughly $80M in card payment volumes. We also saw several major new players announce their entry into the stablecoin niche – including the Trump family (World Liberty Financial’s USD1), Cloudflare (NET dollar), Stripe (Bridge acquisition) and Klarna (KlarnaUSD).
Second, we claimed more countries would start mining Bitcoin in 2025. Specifically, that a larger government beyond El Salvador and Bhutan would start mining Bitcoin. Well, in October this year, Canaan signed a deal to supply bitcoin mining rigs to a major Japanese utility for a grid-stability research project. This marks Japan’s first publicly disclosed state-linked mining initiative. We also saw a group of French legislators propose a law that would allow the use of surplus electricity from nuclear power plants to mine Bitcoin – though it remains a draft at the time of writing.
Third, we claimed there would be a major crypto hack of a big entity in 2025. Well, in February this year, we saw the Bybit crypto exchange get hacked for $1.5 billion by Lazarus Group-linked entities. Notably, this is the largest ever crypto hack on record, contributing nearly half of 2025's $3.4 billion in losses.
Now, the ones we got partially right are: the market rally in 2025 being driven by structural changes; the crypto market top; a major central bank adding BTC to its balance sheet, and privacy and identity being major narratives in 2025.
We will preface that the first two predictions are being marked partially right due to current market conditions making their resolutions uncertain. You see, we claimed that the market could rally much more than most investors expect due to structural changes like more spot crypto ETFs and new listings on US exchanges. While we saw increases in both spot crypto ETFs (including ETFs for altcoins like SOL and XRP) and crypto listings on US exchanges, we got the timing and impact of these structural changes wrong. Specifically, altcoin ETF approvals came towards late 2025 instead of early 2025. Likewise, while the market did rally, most of the gains were driven by BTC instead of altcoins. In terms of market cap, TOTAL (market cap of all cryptocurrencies) is higher than the previous cycle, while TOTAL2 (excluding BTC) and TOTAL3 (excluding BTC and ETH) is just on par with levels seen during the 2021 market rally.
On the other hand, we also claimed the crypto market would top much earlier or later than expected, possibly in the first half of 2025 or 2026. While altcoins seemed to have topped out in early 2025, the same is not true for the total market cap or BTC, both of which hit new all-time highs in H2 2025. That said, with macro/liquidity factors still flashing bullish, the possibility of a H1 2026 top is still on the table. The resolution of this prediction will be determined in the months ahead.
As for the other two predictions that we got half-right, we did see a central bank add BTC to its balance sheet. Specifically, we saw the Czech Central Bank become the first central bank to buy BTC. However, the technicality here is that it isn’t a ‘major’ central bank. Not to mention, the Czech Central Bank called its BTC purchase a “test” portfolio.
We also claimed that privacy and identity would be major narratives in 2025. Well, we got the first part right. Privacy, or rather Zcash ($ZEC), went mainstream in 2025. In fact, Zcash pulled a 10x in under two months, with similar moves being mirrored in other privacy cryptocurrencies. We also claimed this narrative would see institutional interest. Well, the Winklevoss twins led that charge with major Zcash-friendly features being integrated on Gemini. They also established Cypherpunk - a digital asset treasury firm dedicated to accumulating $ZEC. The part we got wrong was identity-related cryptocurrencies being a part of this movement.
Finally, the three predictions we got completely wrong were: DEXs flipping CEXs by trading volume; more than 50% of Bitcoin mining hash rate coming from the United States, and a non-sanctioned country using crypto for international trade. To our credit, we were directionally right on all three, though we overestimated their growth in the short term.
First, DEXs did not flip CEXs by trading volume. However, they did see growth. Notably, DEX spot volumes hit all-time highs of $419.76 billion in October 2025. That said, the DEX-to-CEX ratio peaked at 37.4% mid-year and stabilized around 20% by November, with perpetuals at 11.7%. We also predicted that this growth would be driven by improvements in UX. Well, the rise of trading bots and platforms like FOMO in 2025 played a major role here.
Second, we claimed more than 50% of Bitcoin mining hash rate would come from the United States, influenced by trends and policies like Trump’s comments on American-made BTC. While this did not come true, US dominance of the mining hash rate did increase, rising above 40%+ in early 2025 from roughly 30% last year.
Finally, we claimed a non-sanctioned country would start using crypto for international trade. This did not come true. That said, we did see the BRICS group launch a working prototype of a gold-backed digital trade currency known as the “Unit.” This trade currency is reportedly backed by a fixed reserve basket of 40 percent gold (by weight) and 60 percent in BRICS+ currencies. While some reports claim it would use public blockchain technology, there is no official confirmation.
With that, we wrap up our 2025 review.
While the win rate on our 2025 predictions was nowhere close to our 2024 predictions, we hope to do even better next year. So, if you’re interested in hearing what we expect to see in 2026, make sure you hit that notification bell on our YouTube channel.
🔥 Hot Deal Of The Week 🔥
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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮
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* The End of Home Ownership: How it's mathematically impossible?
🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆
* Crypto's Year in Review: Experts Share Thoughts on a Tumultuous 2025
* Is Crypto Finished? Builders, Analysts and Founders Share Insights
* Avoid These Common Hardware Wallet Errors That Put Crypto at Risk
* Bitget Stock Futures Explained: How Crypto Traders Can Access U.S. Equities
* AMM or Order Book? Here’s What Every Trader Should Know
* What You Need to Know About Crypto Blind Signing (Before It's Too Late)
📖 Quote of the Week 📖
2025 has been a year of contrasts. From the euphoric highs set at the start to the crashing lows that followed. But, these tribulations have set us up for what could be a historic 2026. In the long run, what we’ve experienced this year will end up making us stronger.
“The gem cannot be polished without friction, nor man perfected without trials.” - Chinese Proverb
Team Coin Bureau
PS - a very happy Christmas to all of you and best wishes for 2026 from everyone here at Coin Bureau!
Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.
The Coin Bureau Editorial Team are your dedicated guides through the dynamic world of cryptocurrency. With a passion for educating the masses on blockchain technology and a commitment to unbiased, shill-free content, we unravel the complexities of the industry through in-depth research. We aim to empower the crypto community with the knowledge needed to navigate the crypto landscape successfully and safely, equipping our community with the knowledge and understanding they need to navigate this new digital frontier.
