Is Retail Getting Ready To Ape Back In?

Life must be pretty good for the Winklevoss twins. They bought a shedload of BTC more than a decade ago; had the idea for a spot Bitcoin ETF before anyone else; founded a successful crypto exchange, and successfully salvaged customer funds from the Genesis/Gemini Earn debacle. And there’s two of them.

Gemini, that aforementioned exchange, has incidentally produced the 2024 edition of its Global State of Crypto report - a particularly notable development given that it didn’t produce one in 2023. Evidently, Cameron, Tyler and company are feeling more bullish on crypto these days. Why might that be?

Well, in today’s video, we uncover what Gemini’s report says and what its findings mean for the market and your portfolio. Spoiler alert: it seems there’s a whole load of capital waiting on the sidelines that might soon find its way back into crypto.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

The crypto market madness could be about to begin. That’s because October could be a very big month. If you read our forecast from earlier this month, you’ll know we predicted that September would be a green month (even though it has historically been a red one). This was based on the fact that the last green Septembers took place in 2015, 2016, and 2023.

To refresh your memory, we pointed out the fact that 2015 was a pre-halving year, and that 2016 was a halving year. Given that 2023 was also a pre-halving year, it was possible that 2024 (the halving year) could have a green September too. That’s exactly what happened, but it could very well have been a coincidence given that the 2015-2016 period was the only reference point.

But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the historical analogue holds. This is where things get very interesting and very bullish. As most of you will know, BTC’s large losses in September (AKA Rektember) have historically been followed by big gains in October (AKA Uptober). Naturally, this is why everyone is bullish on crypto in Q4 - October to December.

At the time of writing, BTC is up around 10% since the start of September, and up almost 20% since early September (probably more by the time you read this). This is significant because, in 2016, October’s gains were more than twice as large as September’s gains. Assuming history manages to repeat again, then BTC could see gains of anywhere between 20 and 40% this October.

What makes this interesting is that it would translate to a BTC price of between $80k and $90k, a level which many analysts believe will only be hit later this year at the earliest. In other words, October could surprise to the upside even more than September did. This makes sense when you consider pumping the market will put crypto top of mind for many voters in early November.

Besides this hypothetical repeat of 2016, there are two more concrete catalysts to watch out for over the next week. The first is the unemployment data for September, which will be published this Friday. The Fed made it clear at its recent meeting that it will be watching unemployment data very closely when it comes to its future policy decisions, so we should be doing the same.

On the crypto front meanwhile, we have Messari’s Main Net conference in NYC, which is analogous to TOKEN2049 a couple of weeks ago. In case you didn’t notice, TOKEN2049 caused lots of altcoins to rally, as many of them made big announcements at the conference. As such, it’s safe to assume that we will see the same this week, and the list of altcoins to watch can be found here.

On that note, it looks like lots of up and coming crypto projects have been waiting for market conditions to improve so that they could finally launch their tokens. This recent Telegram post by ICO Analytics has a full list of crypto projects planning token generation events in the immediate future. If altcoins continue to rally like they have been, these TGEs could happen very soon.

The caveat to all of this is that there continue to be very real geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The catch is that bull markets tend to climb a wall of worry. Put simply, they tend to keep going up even when it looks like they’re about to go down. That’s basically what’s been happening, and it underscores the possibility that the rally is in its early stages.

The time to worry is when most investors get greedy. Judging by the crypto fear and greed index, investors are nowhere close to being greedy, and that’s with BTC a few percentage points from its all-time highs…

🕹 Consumer Crypto Devices 🕹

In an April issue of this newsletter, we predicted that consumer crypto devices would be the next big trend of this cycle.

Almost six months later, that thesis is stronger than ever.

Since the publication of that issue, we’ve seen the number of projects and ecosystems launching consumer devices only continue to increase.

For starters, both Solana and Sui – two of the biggest players to announce such initiatives – have made significant strides towards launching their respective products.

In the case of Sui, it opened pre-orders for its SuiPlay0x1 earlier this month with tentative shipping set for Q1 2025. It also announced the second official launch partner game for its device.

As for Solana, it finally revealed the name of the successor to the Saga phone. The second phone, called the Solana Seeker, is set to be more affordable, in order to appeal to a wider consumer base. It's selling at half the price at which the Saga was launched. This lower price tag is reflected in its specs, with the phone reported to be smaller than the Saga, and coming with 128GB of storage and with 8GB of memory. This is a pretty significant drop compared with the Saga’s 512GB of storage and 12GB of RAM.

Given that new consumer device releases are typically expected to be an improvement on their predecessors, many would perhaps interpret the Seeker’s specs as a downgrade.

However, this doesn’t seem to be the case. Demand for the phone hasn’t dampened in the slightest - over 140,000 units of the Solana Seeker have been pre-ordered. This is almost six times the number of Saga units sold. No doubt this persistent demand is inspired by the profits made by buyers of the Saga phone. For context, Saga owners received token airdrops worth many times the price paid for their device.

On that note, Seeker isn’t the only consumer device launched by Solana this time around. At the Solana Breakpoint conference last week, the team announced the launch of a gaming handheld device called the Play Solana Gen1. At first glance, the device looks eerily similar to Nintendo’s GameBoy and another Nintendo-inspired crypto gaming device called the BitBoy One.

We were surprised by this announcement, given how it appeared to have been made in haste following the launch of the SuiPlay0x1. Not to mention how its uncanny resemblance to the BitBoy One sparked an entirely different controversy. Regardless, Solana maxis appear to be unfazed and ever-bullish.

That said, Solana and Sui aren’t the only ones making moves in this direction. We’re starting to see a lot more crypto consumer devices being launched by projects from other ecosystems, including relatively new ones. For example, just last week, we saw XProtocol - an entertainment-focused Ethereum layer-3 network – announce plans to launch an Android-powered smartphone optimised for gaming later this year.

Some of these new projects are also attempting to break the mould when it comes to the type of consumer crypto devices being launched. This is especially true for the Berachain ecosystem, which has projects launching a ‘smart vape’ and a ‘degen’ device instead of the previously seen mobile phones and handheld gaming devices.

The smart vape is being launched by a project called PuffPaw. It seeks to motivate users to kick nicotine addiction through game mechanics involving financial incentives. In fact, PuffPaw is one of the most anticipated projects within the Berachain ecosystem. It recently raised $6m in a seed round that saw participation from prominent crypto VCs, including Lemniscap and the Spartan Group.

The other Berachain device, called the ‘Air Money Degen’, is being launched by a project called DEGN. It claims to be a consumer device built for degens – featuring DePIN capabilities, built-in perp futures trading, private key fragmentation MPC and GameFi support.

From what we can see, the device is essentially a crypto hardware wallet on steroids. One X user describes it as the ‘iPhone’ to the current ‘Nokia’ standard of crypto hardware wallets. A lofty comparison, no doubt.

However, the innovation doesn’t stop there. We also have projects launching NFT-chipped press-on nails, token-incentive sex toys, (I kid you not) and fitness rings. We reckon this is just the start of a crazy big wave of consumer crypto devices set to wash over us.

That said, we expect most of these to end up being nothing more than vapourware. This is an unfortunate step in the technological maturation cycle. Spotting the difference between the ones which are diamonds in the rough and the ones which are just, well… rough, will likely make all the difference between being profitable and being rekt.

This is easier said than done, of course. For now, the best playbook would be to stick to products launched by credible founders/companies with a pre-existing background in the products being launched. You don’t want to pay thousands of dollars just to receive a drop-shipped product with a printed QR code on the back.

That said, the promise for these projects is real. We expect the best-performing and most successful consumer crypto devices to leverage a mix of web3 incentives and web2 business strategies.

For example, in the case of the smart vape launched by PuffPaw, it improves existing consumer habits (vaping) by incentivising them to switch to healthier alternatives via financial incentives (web3). The cost of these financial incentives can be offset by brand partnerships and advertisements (web2). It also provides a sustainable way to onboard more web2 users to web3. This is but one example. We’ll likely come across more as the market continues to mature.

So, stay vigilant. For the next few months, we’ll be grinding away in these trenches searching for those gold nuggets amid the dirt.

🔥 Hot Deal of The Week 🔥

The crypto market madness could be about to begin as the altseason buds of spring are blossoming. That means it’s time to secure an account on a top-tier altcoin exchange.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* BNB Update: Potential in 2024?
* Stablecoin Report: You need to know this!
* BTC ETF Options: Deep dive into approved Bitcoin ETFs
* Quantum Reporting Report: This should scare you!
* Blackrock’s Bitcoin: What they think of BTC
 
🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* SKALE Network Review: Zero-Gas Solution for Ethereum DApps
* 10 Best Crypto Portfolio Trackers to Manage Your Investments
* What is Bitcoin Mining? Learn How Cryptocurrency is Created
* Best Cold Storage Wallets for Ultimate Crypto Security in 2024

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

If you find yourself emotionally invested in your crypto bags, you have too much exposure.  

“Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.” - Seth Klarman

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.