Signs of Life?

The CLARITY Act may have hit the skids, but there’s still a lot happening on the legislative front, not least the possibility that the SEC may soon make everything in crypto legal for a time. This could be just the catalyst needed to wake the crypto market from its winter slumber.

Today’s forward guidance looks at what to expect over the next week, while we also dig deeper into the world of token buybacks - do they make a difference to price, or could the money be better spent elsewhere? And yes, we also need to talk about tax…

😱 The Tax Reporting NIGHTMARE 😱

Mention the words ‘crypto’ and ‘tax’ in the same sentence and you’re likely to trigger some kind of allergic reaction in whoever is unfortunate enough to be within earshot. Well, guess what - the powers that be have come up with a way to make the crypto/tax nexus even more unpleasant.

Step forward the CARF - or crypto asset reporting framework. This is the brainchild of the OECD and it’s going to mean more intrusive questions from crypto exchanges, more friction when trying to move your assets around and quite possibly a higher tax bill as well. The taxman is coming for your bags.

In today’s video, we break down this new reporting framework and outline how it will affect those of us in the crypto space. We’ll reveal which projects are likely to be worst affected, explore what it means for privacy and look at some ways you can push back against it.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

The rotation out of large cap stocks into small cap stocks continues, so much so that the media is starting to notice. To recap, there’s a high correlation between crypto and small cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000 (RUT). This is because both asset classes lie further out along the risk spectrum, and there’s also overlap in the types of investors who buy them - mostly retail.

The recent breakout in the RUT and the rotation from large cap stocks into small caps could therefore be a reason why the crypto market also inched higher last week. Notably, this grind higher happened despite the delay of the Supreme Court’s decision about the legality of Trump’s tariffs, and the delay of the Senate Banking Committee's review of the CLARITY Act.

Besides macro liquidity apparently flowing further out the risk curve, it’s possible that the crypto market is also rallying in anticipation of the SEC’s innovation exemption. To refresh your memory, this would basically legalize everything in crypto in the US temporarily in the name of innovation, and it’s expected to be introduced by the end of January.

What’s interesting is that Solana Mobile will be airdropping its SKR token to Seeker phone holders this Wednesday. The timing is interesting because airdrops are one of the things the innovation exemption would allow; airdrops are currently restricted in the US. Given Solana’s close ties to the Trump admin, it’s possible the exemption will come just before the airdrop.

Another interesting thing to consider is the sudden increase in activity on Ethereum. There’s reportedly been a spike in new wallets, along with a surge in transactions. It’s not clear what’s driving this increase in on-chain activity, but the top candidate is likely developments related to stablecoins and tokenization, which institutions have highlighted as key themes for 2026.

For context, Ethereum is the most popular blockchain for both stablecoins and tokenized real world assets (RWAs). This is simply because Ethereum is the oldest and most battle tested smart contract blockchain. Meanwhile, Ethereum treasury companies have continued accumulating ETH, and are in the early stages of this compared to Bitcoin treasury companies.

As with the rotation out of large cap stocks into small cap stocks, the media is starting to notice that ETH is likely to outperform BTC due to these and other dynamics. What the media has not yet realized, however, is that ETH isn’t the only asset that will benefit. SOL should also benefit, since Solana is emerging as a popular blockchain for both stablecoins and tokenized RWAs.

Another asset that could benefit is CRCL, the stock of USDC issuer Circle. That’s just because USDC is emerging as the standard for stablecoins, especially in the US. As it so happens, members of the Coin Bureau Club recently voted for us to review CRCL, and we will be posting the review this Friday. You can become a member and see the review by using this link here.

Besides these potential catalysts and ongoing factors, there doesn’t seem to be much on the menu next week. There will be a few minor economic data points such as initial jobless claims, revisions to GDP from Q3 2025, and the delayed PCE report from November 2025. These are unlikely to move the markets very much, but there could be other surprises on the macro front.

One of these is the possibility that the US could strike Iran, though the risk of this happening has reportedly declined. Another is the possibility that the US could take Greenland, though the means by which this would occur probably wouldn’t have much of an impact on the markets. It’s worth noting that the Republicans are running out of time to get their ducks in a row.

That’s because it’s a midterm election year. Even though the midterms aren’t until the autumn, primaries will begin in March. This means that if we’re going to see strikes on Iran, an acquisition of Greenland, or other such controversial actions, they’re likely to happen before the spring. With some luck this rush to get things wrapped up will include crypto legislation.

In sum then, this week is looking bullish for crypto, but it could very well turn out to be another week of chop similar to last week. This depends on what kinds of catalysts emerge. The known ones are not very significant, but the unknown ones certainly are…

🤔 The Buyback Debate 🤔

Token buybacks have been a topic of contention recently.

The founders of Jupiter and Helium – two projects with long-standing buybacks programs - recently expressed their concerns about the model. Both founders noted that buybacks have had no meaningful effect on the price of their respective tokens and wondered whether that capital would be better suited for growth initiatives instead.

Their statements kicked up a storm on CT as token holders reacted in both directions. Some were in support of pausing buybacks, with others instead favouring optimising their buyback models instead. After all, Hyperliquid saw meaningful value accrue to token holders from its buyback program. In fact, buybacks were a major trend in 2025 due to Hyperliquid’s success, with crypto protocols cumulatively spending over $1.4 billion last year to repurchase and often burn their own tokens.

If so, what was the difference between these projects?

Well, the discussion around this topic is quite nuanced. However, it can be boiled down to a few core concepts.

First, why token buybacks?

At their core, buybacks as a mechanism are intended to bridge the structural value disconnect between protocol success and token price. You see, as a response to regulatory persecution during the Biden administration, most crypto protocols have a dual equity-token model. Under this model, value from protocol success primarily accrued to equity holders, while token holders were merely granted limited governance powers over the underlying technology layer.

Any attempt at issuing dividends or promising direct claims over protocol revenue invited the gaze of the dreaded SEC. This created a scenario where projects instead resorted to buyback programs as the de facto bridge to indirectly cover this value divide. In many ways, this was primarily a social signalling exercise intended to assure token holders they were still a priority.

However, as regulatory pressures have eased under the new US administration, the investor POV on these programs has moved from social signalling to a more fundamental measure of the effectiveness of value bridging. The greater the effect on token price, the more a project is seen as token-aligned.

With that said, we can now explore the differences between projects that see meaningful effects from buybacks vs those that do not.

Fundamentally, this is a game of demand vs supply. When demand outpaces supply, token price goes up. When supply outpaces demand, token price goes down.

Buybacks are a part of the demand equation, but they should not be the only component. In other words, buybacks work best when they augment instead of create confidence in the protocol. Real usage, stable revenue, and a healthy roadmap for future improvements are the primary drivers of demand. Without them, buybacks merely serve as a defensive measure against price decline. In other words, when available, projects must favour high-return growth opportunities over buybacks.

Second, real demand and healthy buybacks can still fail in the face of predatory tokenomics. It’s no secret that most tokens that have launched in recent years have had a low float/high FDV model. Most of these projects have token emissions that eclipse any supply reduction from their buyback programs.

Third, predictability inspires confidence. Buyback programs that are regular, predictable, and rules-based tend to inspire more confidence than discretionary or one-off efforts, even in cases where buybacks are only optimal at certain periods. In other words, investors prefer projects with strict buyback programs over ones that execute buybacks as seasonal relief measures.

With that said, the reality is that most crypto projects are on the wrong side of the equation to see any meaningful effects from buybacks. According to research firm Four Pillars, the number of projects with a buyback-to-emissions ratio (coverage ratio) above 1 is in the single digits. Buyback programs from projects with a coverage ratio below 1 are intended to provide exit liquidity to locked investors rather than benefit liquid token holders.

It’s not all gloom and doom though. The hope is that regulatory clarity from incoming legislation will help projects innovate and find more direct forms of value accrual to token holders in the future. Until then, the focus remains on doing the best with what we have.

🔥 Hot Deal Of The Week 🔥

New Years bring new resolutions and for those sticking around in crypto upgrading your cryptos security should probably be one of them.

Hardware wallets can be notoriously difficult for people to set up, but Tangem has made things super simple with their app and NFC-enabled cards allowing for seedless security. It’s probably a good sign that all the test units sent to Coin Bureau HQ have mysteriously disappeared.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

Coin Bureau Main

* Clarity Mess Up: How the US crypto industry shot itself in the foot?

Coin Bureau Finance

* Chip Shortage: Why are electronics pricier even as demand falls?
* Greenland: How geopolitics, minerals, billionaires are reshaping the world?
* BYD Vs Tesla: How BYD took the lead and Tesla’s bet on the future?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* 1 inch Exchange Reviewed: Complete Guide to DEX Aggregator Fees & Features
* The Smart Contract Attacks Every Crypto User Should Know About
* How to Store Your Seed Phrase Securely (Without Making Costly Mistakes)
* SushiSwap Reviewed: Is the SUSHI DEX Worth Using In 2026?
* The Complete Review Of PancakeSwap: Is This Leading DEX Safe & Worth Your Money in 2026?

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Nothing is terminal until you make it. Never take a risk that would see you lose everything.

“The biggest risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital” - Howard Marks

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.