This Company Could Send Bitcoin Skyrocketing! 🚀

When the hype around the spot Bitcoin ETFs was at its most frenzied, it seemed like every asset manager out there wanted a piece of the action. However, there was one particularly notable exception.

Vanguard is second only to BlackRock when it comes to assets under management (AUM), with over seven trillion dollars under its purview. And yet, Vanguard has been greatly mocked by many in the crypto community for its stubborn refusal to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF. Given the success of those spot ETFs since they were launched ($12.4 billion of inflows and counting) could the venerable Vanguard be set to change its mind anytime soon?

This question is made all the more pressing by recent personnel change at the top of Vanguard and by the potential impact such a 180 could have on BTC and the rest of the crypto market by extension.

So, in today’s video, we unpack the reasons why Vanguard hasn’t come to the party and examine whether the FOMO will eventually prove too strong. We also dive deep into the history of the company in search of reasons for its stance, and we speculate on just how much of an impact it could have on the market if it does decide to throw its hat into the ring.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

Things are heating up on the macro and crypto fronts. That means we’re likely to see lots of volatility over the next week. Starting with the macro, the most important data point to be on the lookout for is the unemployment rate for May. For context, the unemployment rate rose slightly more than expected last time, potentially signalling economic weakness.

Here’s where things get interesting. Up until now, bad news (like a rising unemployment rate) has been good news for the markets, because it increases the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates. However, Fed officials have recently been stating that there will be no rate cuts. Given that they’re likely aware of the deteriorating economic data, this potentially signals a looming recession.

More importantly, we run the risk of history repeating. For reference, the Fed has historically cut interest rates in response to some emergency, be it economic or financial. This has created an even more interesting paradox, wherein some market participants could sell when the Fed starts cutting, believing that the Fed is seeing economic risks that aren’t being properly priced in.

Make no mistake, the risk of an economic slowdown seems to be very real. Besides many Q1 retail earnings coming in below expectations, many retailers are starting to lower prices. This is significant, as it means that they are putting their money where their mouth is, so to speak. If this trend continues, it could risk something that nobody is talking about - a deflationary shock.

This sounds crazy until you realise that China has been dumping cheap goods on the global economy in a bid to boost its own. As many macro analysts have pointed out, the fact that this isn’t working is evidence that consumers, who make up most of the economy, are tapped out. Lo and behold, some countries are now trying to blame a potential recession on China.

But that’s just the macro. The crypto side of the story is just as crazy, and that’s because politics is starting to play a role in crypto policy, at least in the US. As most of you will know, many Democrat politicians have long been anti-crypto. This however seems to be changing, as the prospect of crypto voters siding with Trump in the upcoming election is likely a threat to the Biden campaign.

The good news is that this has and will continue to be a bullish catalyst for the crypto market. The bad news is that because this catalyst is political, it’s very difficult to predict what could come next. For example, if crypto prices crash, will crypto still be as big of a force in the upcoming elections? Considering that interest is correlated to prices, the answer is likely no.

The catch is that the political shift itself is likely to keep crypto prices elevated, creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy - more pro-crypto policies cause prices to go up, which turns crypto into an ever bigger force leading up to the election. It’s possible that this is exactly what we’re going to see in the coming weeks, and the starting gun could be the eventual passing of FIT21.

That said, much of the coverage we’ve seen about the change in tone around crypto has come from pro-crypto sources such as the crypto media. Aside from the spot Ethereum ETF approvals and the recently-passed pro-crypto resolution, there isn’t much concrete evidence of a 180. Indeed, the pro-crypto resolution recently passed along bi-partisan lines in the House was vetoed by Biden.

This underscores the importance of being vigilant for potential surprises like Consensys and/or Uniswap still being sued by the SEC. This hasn’t happened yet, and it could happen as soon as this week. Seeing that the majority view seems to be that the coast is clear on the regulatory front in the US, any unwelcome surprises could cause the markets to surprise to the downside.

All things considered though, the upside risks remain larger than the downside risks for now. Long may that continue.

🧐 Livestream Memecoins: The Next Meta? 🧐

Move over dog coins, there's a new species of degeneracy rolling into town. Enter 'livestream' memecoins.

That’s right, this week saw one of Solana’s most viral and profitable dApps, pump.fun, announce that it was adding a livestream feature to its interface.

Now, at first glance, this sounds like a great idea, especially when you consider that livestreaming is one of the fastest-growing media formats in the world right now. One study found that the global livestreaming market grew from $1.24 billion in 2022 to $1.49 billion in 2023 at a CAGR of 20.6%, while another projects that the livestreaming market will reach a valuation of $256.56 billion by 2032.

A confluence of factors has contributed to this sudden growth, including increasing internet penetration, better and faster internet, the proliferation of smartphones and mobile devices, and the rise of social media platforms.

A recent survey by Deloitte also found that nearly half of Gen Z respondents (47%) and a third of millennials prefer to watch social video and live streams over TV shows and movies on streaming services such as Netflix.

This partly explains why streamers like Adin Ross, Kai Cenat, IShowSpeed, and Jidion have recently been wielding much greater influence over cultural trends (in comparison to mainstream celebrities such as movie stars), on social media platforms such as Instagram, YouTube, and X.

Clearly, for industries with a younger user base than others (such as cryptocurrency), livestreaming is the best form of media to integrate into products if possible. So, does this mean pump.fun is GMI and up only?

Well, sort of. Maybe. Let us explain.

To be clear, we see it revolutionising the way creators can monetize their livestreams. For instance, NPC streaming was insanely popular on TikTok last year. These NPC streamers monetised their streams by performing actions based on the ‘virtual gifts’ or ‘stickers’ viewers purchased for the streamer during the stream. Platforms like TikTok pay the creator 50% of the value of the sticker or gifts purchased by their viewer.

As you can see, a 50% platform/intermediary fee is quite greedy. If given an opportunity, creators would opt to receive a majority of the money spent by their viewers, if not all. In that regard, pump.fun’s livestreaming integration presents itself as a viable solution for those who seek it.

In fact, even before this integration, we saw a large number of memecoin creators on pump.fun attempt to build a community for their coins by livestreaming on platforms like Twitch, X and Telegram. For example, Richard Podgurski, the co-founder of the LiveTwitch memecoin, did a 52-hour livestream in an attempt to pump the price of his token. He stated that his goal was to use the token as a form of subscriber model.

For these creators, a livestreaming integration should be extremely bullish, since it reduces the steps between investing and actually watching his streams.

In an interview with Decrypt, Podgurski described his pump.fun experience as “4Chan 2.0 on degenerate steroids” and stated that he “love(s) every damn inch of it… the bad, the funny, the ugly. It's nothing short of the greatest corner of the internet at the moment.”

However, there’s also a darker side to livestream coins on pump.fun. One that could jeopardise the survival of the protocol in the long run. This dark side consists of memecoins that function purely as a means for a quick cash grab, or which feature content that is not socially acceptable.

The most prominent example of the latter is LiveMom, a memecoin that saw a livestream of a kid and his mom performing derogatory and sexual actions to pump the token before rugging. Other examples include livestream memecoins that feature creators who pretend to be handicapped (HANDS), kidnapped (ROMAN), or even boxing each other (FADELIVE).

Sometimes, these livestream memecoins can have real-world consequences for their creators, as in the case of one creator who suffered third-degree burns while carrying out a dare requested by his viewers.

This is when it becomes too much, enough perhaps for authorities to actually take an interest and act on those facilitating this degeneracy. So far, pump.fun has been able to claim innocence, since it did not directly influence the livestreams of such creators.

However, with its new integration, those lines are starting to disappear. This is especially so given its lack of strict guidelines and content rules, such as the ones found on other livestreaming platforms. We suspect pump.fun could soon face real-world consequences if it doesn’t start properly moderating the type of content it allows on its new feature.

That said, it’s clear that the meta of livestream coins is just starting to pick up. We believe we will see other crypto projects, not just pump.fun, begin to pivot into livestreaming. If we had to bet on who would be the first adopters of this trend, we’d go all-in on SocialFi platforms such as friend.tech and Farcaster. Watch this space.

🔥 Hot Deal of The Week 🔥

It appears that we are currently in the accumulation phase of the markets. That means it might be a good time to top up your portfolio by injecting some fresh fiat into the markets before the next leg up.

To do that, you’ll need a top-notch on-ramp and one that’s been incredibly popular at Coin Bureau HQ has got to be the Swissborg app. We’ve found deposits there to be buttery smooth and had withdrawals to our bank accounts processed in literally seconds.

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👉 Give the Swissborg app a try for a hassle free way to buy crypto!

🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Markets Are Broken: Where Are The New Retail Investors?
* Hong Kong ETFs: What you need to know!
* FDV Tokens: Why are they controversial?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Top Polkadot Projects 2024: 7 Best DOT DApps
* M6 Labs Crypto Market Pulse: Assessing Your Next 100x Investment
* Internet Computer Review: Updates You Don't Want To Miss!

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Overtrading is perhaps one of the biggest sins an investor can commit and it’s one that eats into long-term returns. Remember, time in the market beats timing the market.  

“The desire to perform all the time is usually a barrier to performing over time” - Robert Olstein

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.