Uptober Cancelled? All-time Highs, Record Liquidations and Monad

A truly rollercoaster week began with Bitcoin setting another new all-time high and ended with some of the largest liquidations ever witnessed. This crypto business isn't for the faint hearted.

So, in the light of Trump’s latest tariff bombshell, today’s newsletter looks ahead to what could be another volatile week further complicated by the ongoing US government shutdown. We’ve also got all the information you need about one of the most eagerly-anticipated launches of the year: Monad. Is it the next big thing, or another potential nothingburger?

Meanwhile, today’s video takes a look at what happened on Friday and analyses what it means for crypto, the wider markets and Uptober itself. Happy reading.

😱The Goblintown Express😱

It was all going so well. BTC broke a new high on Monday and, while the market as a whole lost some ground midweek, the consensus seemed to be that Uptober was going to plan. And then Donald Trump reached for his phone.

Trump’s tariff regime has been the biggest driver of volatility across all markets this year, but in recent months the temperature had been dialled down as deals were signed, negotiations undertaken and pauses implemented. Crucially however, while the US and China were talking to each other, the underlying issues hadn’t been resolved. Now, they’ve come bursting back to the surface.

On Friday, Trump fired off a Truth Social post, wherein he accused China of taking “an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade” and that, as a result, “the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.” Ouch.

So, the trade war has flared up again, uncertainty is back with a vengeance, and we all know what that means for markets. Cue a crypto meltdown that saw many prices wick down to almost unthinkable levels. Anyone who was long just saw their weekend thoroughly ruined.

In today’s video, we unpack what happened, what it means and where we might be headed next. Is Uptober cancelled, or can we get the show back on the road?

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

If you’re a regular reader of our newsletter, you’ll know we frequently link to MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar, as it lists the most important macro catalysts for the following week. We recently noticed something new on the Calendar: an asterix next to most of the macro data, noting that it won’t be published if the US government shutdown continues.

This begs the question of when all of this delayed data will be published. The short answer is after the shutdown ends. The longer answer is that this data won’t come out all at once - it will be gradually released so as to minimize disruption. For what it’s worth, economic data compiled by private entities will still be released and give us a sense of economic trends.

In any case, the key takeaway is that the longer the US government remains in stasis, the bigger the backlog of economic data, like this week’s upcoming PPI and CPI readings. For context, prediction markets currently expect the shutdown to last until the second half of October at least. This means that there could be no significant macro catalysts until then.

It also means that there will be delays around significant crypto catalysts like the CLARITY Act being passed and the spot altcoin ETFs being approved. This could explain why the crypto market struggled over the last week despite the fact that almost every other asset class, including stocks and precious metals, continued to hit new all time highs around the world.

If this is the case, then the crypto market could continue facing headwinds until the US government gets back to work, if only just because the DXY may only weaken once the shutdown ends. For reference, every US government shutdown eventually caused the DXY to fall, and a drop in the DXY tends to be bullish for the markets, especially risk assets like altcoins.

So far, however, the DXY has been rising, and this appears to be mostly due to the recent political changes in Japan and the ongoing political crisis in France. For those unfamiliar, the DXY consists primarily of the Japanese yen and the euro. So, when there are political issues in these countries, the yen and euro tend to weaken, and the DXY tends to strengthen.

Regardless, the key takeaway in this case is that the DXY needs to weaken for the macro backdrop to become more supportive of risk assets. At the same time, there need to be crypto catalysts that bring attention to crypto specifically. The good news is that there are dozens of these. The bad news is that most of them are contingent on the US government.

And the worse news is that there’s another macro factor we need to watch now, and that’s a re-escalation in the trade war between China and the US. In case you somehow missed the news, Trump has announced 100% tariffs on China starting November 1st. The result was record liquidations in the crypto market that took prices way lower than anyone expected (except Il Capo Of Crypto, apparently).

The silver lining is that the roughly 17 billion dollars in long liquidations have completely wiped all the leverage from the market, making it possible for crypto to continue grinding higher. It’s easy to forget how this tariff FUD always ends: with Trump chickening out, and the markets continuing to power higher. Once everyone (including Trump) has calmed down, we’re likely to see the same outcome.

The crypto industry also seems to be preparing itself for the inevitable improvement in macro conditions and the tsunami of crypto catalysts. Dozens of crypto projects and companies have announced major changes, like Coinbase finally adding support for DEXes on Base, and MetaMask integrating Hyperliquid, and with plans to integrate Polymarket.

Again, this is preparation for the wave of users and investors that the crypto industry expects will materialise in the coming weeks. It seems the only question left is figuring out exactly when the crypto market could top. There are a lot of possible answers, with some traders arguing that the cycle top for Bitcoin could come as soon as October 20th.

(And yes this is still possible with the recent liquidations, at least according to this guy).

Opinions on this at the Coin Bureau vary as well, but we reckon two things are fairly certain. First, it should be fairly easy to tell when Bitcoin has topped, because the top will likely be accompanied by some kind of bullish catalyst, as was the case with previous cycle tops. Once that Bitcoin top is in, history suggests that altcoins will rally for at least a few weeks after that.

Second and more importantly, we are in the Q4 period of the 4th year in crypto’s four-year cycle. This means that a cycle top is likely between now and December, with altcoins potentially rallying longer than that. Newsflash, but that’s less than three months. Chances are that many of you have been waiting three years or more for the cycle top. So, another three months can’t hurt, right?

🚀 Monad Hype 🚀

The fabled $MON airdrop and mainnet launch are getting closer.

The Monad team has confirmed that mainnet will go live before the end of the year, with many speculating it will happen in November. The team also announced last week that the airdrop claim portal is going live on October 14th (Tuesday). Since the tokenomics are yet to be revealed and the exact mainnet launch date remains unconfirmed, some speculate we could see a repeat of the $EIGEN token claim incident - i.e., tokens remain non-transferable/tradable until mainnet launch.

Regardless, after three long years, the Monad community is finally getting rewarded for its dedication. The timeline on X is filled with hype posts from Monad community members. The airdrop is expected to be massive. Some speculate it could match the HYPE airdrop in terms of value received per wallet. Estimates range from $1000 to $50,000 per wallet depending on their participation in the ecosystem.

While it’s still too soon to say whether the airdrop really will be that big, we think it’s safe to bet on Monad doing well post mainnet launch. This is largely in part due to the community and culture the project has built over the past three years. It’s the heart and soul of what makes Monad interesting after all.

Sure, the tech is great too – it’s an EVM-compatible layer 1 chain that works like Solana. It features parallel execution, allowing multiple transactions to process simultaneously without affecting decentralisation. Fast, cheap and perfect for DeFi. It also has great backers. It raised $225 million in a funding round led by Paradigm and participation from notable names like Electric Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Castle Island Ventures, and GSR Ventures.

But the same is true for other layer 1 and layer 2 chains – parallelised execution or fast transactions isn’t exactly unique to Monad. Sei, MegaETH and NeonEVM do the same thing.

So, what sets Monad apart from its peers? In our opinion, it’s the community and culture in the ecosystem. Monad has built a reputation for being highly supportive of its user and builder communities.

For instance, the project announced Monad Momentum - an incentives matching program to accelerate ecosystem growth. The initiative will see the Monad team support builders on the network in a way that aligns growth incentives with long-term commitment from serious builders. Specifically, it will match any incentives offered by the team to accelerate user onboarding. This prevents projects from merely grant farming and encourages serious builders to build on the network.

As for the users, the project encourages genuine community participation and does not shy away from embracing FUD and opinions from detractors. For the first part, there have been a number of things to quantify real participation – from airdropping SBTs to community members to special Discord roles and hosting regional community meetups.

The most notable community building measure among these has been the Monad Cards program – NFTs granted to the most active and notable contributors (including haters) to Monad’s mindshare on CT. It featured a community-wide nomination system that reliably helped identify its most vocal supporters and detractors. By granting Monad Cards to detractors, it took an inclusion-first approach that valued criticism on the same level as praise. Combine this with the fact that the team hosted a special panel discussion event at TOKEN2049 for answering questions from detractors, and the idea of inclusion being a core value only grows stronger. This bodes well for the project’s prospective post-TGE price and chain adoption performance. When you don’t shy away from the hard questions, you gain respect.

That said, despite being in testnet, Monad already features a thriving portfolio of projects in its ecosystem. Some of the more notable ones include aPriori (a MEV-powered liquid staking and AI-powered DEX aggregator); Kuru (a fully onchain centralised limit order book DEX); FastLane Labs (MEV tools); Magma (liquid staking); Levr.bet (leveraged sports betting platform); LumiterraGame (game with gasless flows); and Chog (NFT project). Early participation in these projects post mainnet launch could yield good rewards via incentive programs. We recommend you keep an eye on them.

🔥 Hot Deal Of The Week 🔥

Altcoins have taken a drastic dive over the last few days. This sees many alt prices at significant discounts to earlier in the week.

If you are one of those people who thought they missed the boat on a good entry price, then now might be the time to build those positions you wished you had.

One of the exchanges we are using at Coin Bureau HQ to make tweaks to our portfolios is Bitget! Over there you can get a /press-release/blockchain-life-2025/ and access over 800 altcoins!

👉 Try out Bitget now!

🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Bear Market Preparation: How to identify one and how to survive?
* EdgeX Tutorial: The ultimate guide to using this DEX!
* Altcoin Treasuries Vs Altcoin ETF’s: How upcoming ETFs could reshape markets?
* AI Jobs: How AI is reshaping the global job market?
* Commercial Real Estate Update: The brewing $20 Trillion crisis!
* BNB Ecosystem Guide: All things BNB explored!

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* A Beginner’s Guide to Buying Solana Memecoins in 2025
* FLOKI Coin Price Analysis: Can It Hit $1?
* Discover the Top DeFi Staking Platforms in 2025
* Top No-KYC Crypto Exchanges in October 2025
* Discover The Top DeFi Yield Farming Platforms In 2025
* Is BYDFi Worth It in 2025? A Comprehensive Review

Press Release:

* Blockchain Life 2025 in Dubai: Global Crypto Leaders Gather for the 15th Anniversary Forum Featuring Akon’s Exclusive Performance

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Well, it wasn’t the ending to the week we were hoping for. But in the long run, prices will recover and the latest tariff tantrum will be replaced by other headlines. Bullishness beats bearishness if you’re patient enough.

"To be an investor, you must be a believer in a better tomorrow." - Benjamin Graham

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.