Bull Market Ends On THIS DAY! Don’t MISS IT!

The noise is deafening. Some are saying we’re so over, others insist we’re only just warming up. Do we peak later this year, early next year, or is the top already in and we’re on the fast train to goblin town?

Well, fortunately for us, there are various signs and indicators we can look at when trying to gauge the direction of travel. While nobody can predict the future, we have enough analytical tools and past history to make educated guesses and informed decisions.

In today’s video, we talk you through some of these key indicators and how to read them. We also examine some of the possible catalysts that could set the bear market in motion, and speculate on how low we could go in the best and worst-case scenarios.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

Historically speaking, August has been a green month for crypto in post-halving years. As you might have noticed though, it looks like August 2025 is going to be closing red. This means that for the first time ever, this seasonality did not apply to the crypto market. So, what is September going to look like, given that it has historically been a red month for crypto?

The answer depends on why September has historically been red. As a fun fact, the so-called ‘September Effect’ is not unique to crypto. It’s a phenomenon that applies to the markets as a whole, and it’s believed to be due to institutions rebalancing their portfolios and taking profits after coming back from vacation over the summer. The result is a red September.

The catch is that institutional investors are reportedly less involved in the markets out of fear, while retail investors have been doubling down out of greed. For example, retail ETF inflows have been going up and to the right since the start of the year and started going parabolic in April. Meanwhile, there have been ETF outflows from institutions, especially since April.

If the September Effect is driven by institutional flows, then the dominance of retail flows in the market could mean that the September Effect will be muted or even non-existent. In fact, it would explain why the second half of August was so bearish for the crypto market - retail investors are all expecting September to be bearish, so they started selling in advance.

Evidence for this can be found in the price action headed into Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole earlier this month. The markets were grinding lower heading into Friday, August 22nd. When things didn’t turn out to be as bad as markets were pricing in, there was a big bounce. It’s possible that the crypto market will experience a similar rebound in September.

The catch is that there would need to be a catalyst for this rebound. In other words, the grind lower could continue until there’s some better-than-expected news that causes a bounce. As it so happens, there are almost half a dozen macro catalysts coming this week, including the ISM data on Tuesday, jobs data on Wednesday and Thursday, and unemployment data on Friday.

Naturally, weaker-than-expected economic and jobs data would be more supportive of a cut, whereas stronger-than-expected economic and jobs data would reduce the chances of a cut. As you may have heard, the GDP for Q2 was revised higher late last week, and jobless claims came within expectations. This strong economic data likely contributed to last week’s decline.

At the same time, it looks like there will be quite a few announcements on the crypto front. For starters, we have the launch of World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token, which will occur tomorrow. Contrary to popular belief, WLFI is unlikely to ‘drain’ liquidity from the crypto market. Rather, it’s likely to result in much more attention and capital being directed to crypto.

Then on Wednesday, Ondo Finance will apparently be making a big announcement related to tokenized RWAs. It’s worth highlighting how much PYTH recently pumped after Pyth Network announced it was working with the US Department of Commerce. This is notable, because it suggests that these big announcements are starting to affect prices, unlike earlier in the year.

Another announcement that could happen this week is the listing date for American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining company that’s partially owned by Trump’s sons. American Bitcoin is expected to list sometime in September, and just like the WLFI token launch and Ondo Finance’s upcoming announcement, it will (hopefully) drive more attention and capital to the crypto market overall.

In sum, crypto prices could continue grinding lower this week, but any macro data that’s indicative of further Fed easing could result in an explosion higher, just like with Jackson Hole. At this stage, everyone and their mom expects September to be bearish for crypto. With everyone betting on prices going down, all it takes is a bit of good news to get a short squeeze.

💰 Prediction Market Buzz 💰

If you’ve spent any time at all on Crypto X this week, you’ve likely seen countless posts on why prediction markets are the next big thing. From claims about now being the perfect time to become a prediction market influencer, to Polymarket starter guides, dedicated directories and calls for a pivot from memecoin trading to prediction markets – the timeline is loud.

But, just how much of this is organic hype vs strategic marketing?

Well, from a numbers perspective, nothing much has changed recently. In fact, volumes on Polymarket are 50% down from their peak during the 2024 elections – not surprising since elections have always been one of the biggest markets for such platforms. That said, the data also shows that post-election monthly volume on Polymarket is orders of magnitude higher than what it was during the same period last year, which points to sustained market interest in prediction contracts.

However, volumes have remained consistent for quite a few months now, which means there is no noticeable rise in user activity/adoption on these platforms. In other words, the recent (and sudden) interest in prediction markets is likely the result of a coordinated marketing push from the industry. As for the timing, it all follows a recent slew of positive developments for the industry under the current US administration.

You see, the prediction market industry was famously a victim of regulatory persecution under the Biden administration. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) actively made it hard for these platforms to operate in the US. It also tried to ban political event contracts and pursued regulatory action against many prediction market platforms. This led to the exit or closure of many prediction platforms in the US, including PredictIt and Polymarket.

However, since Trump took office, the regulator has reversed course. Notably, the CFTC under Acting Chair Caroline Pham has dropped its lawsuits against prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. Brian Quintenz, President Trump’s nominee for CFTC Chair, has also expressed positive views on prediction markets, describing event contracts as an appropriate "hedging tool."

That said, the regulator’s shift seems to be in part due to allied political and business interests. Notably, Pham is known for being pro-crypto and financial innovation. She has consistently dissented the CFTC’s previous approach to prediction markets and the crypto industry. In fact, she plans to join crypto payments company MoonPay once Quintenz finally receives Senate confirmation. Speaking of which, you might be interested to know that Quintenz is on the board of Kalshi. While this has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, the rabbit hole goes even deeper. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. has advisory and investment roles at both Polymarket and Kalshi. His firm, 1789 Capital, also recently invested tens of millions of dollars in Polymarket, which it views as an IPO candidate.

Unsurprisingly, this seemingly positive regulatory environment for prediction market platforms has bolstered growth and innovation across the industry. Traditional brokerage platforms are now beginning to explore integrations with prediction market products and platforms. Just earlier this month, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to launch NFL and college football prediction markets directly on its app.

Polymarket has also re-entered the US market after acquiring regulated derivatives exchange QCX for $112 million. Funding for prediction markets is also on an uptick, with firms like The Clearing Company having recently raised $15 million in a seed funding round announced last week.

It also seems like web2 prediction market platforms are taking a page out of the playbook used by web3 platforms like Polymarket. For context, one of the primary problems with achieving large-scale adoption of prediction markets is the need to maintain sufficient liquidity in event contracts. The logic is simple – deep liquidity equals better capital efficiency, which allows for active institutional participation. Web3 platforms like Polymarket feature a generous liquidity program that incentivises market makers to quote in exchange for passive rewards. According to some reports, Kalshi recently submitted a filing with the CFTC seeking permission for a similar liquidity incentive program. Kalshi also appears to have begun exploring a possible crypto integration - it recently hired crypto influencer John Wang to head its crypto push.

Well, we are trendsetters after all. Speaking of which, it’s probably a good idea to highlight some of the more innovative prediction market platforms native to crypto. There are three types of platforms on our list: social-feed integrated markets, trading bots, and DeFi-integrated markets.

The first type features prediction market platforms that are natively integrated on social media or other social feeds of their users. This includes platforms like Myriad Markets, and Onit. For instance, Myriad Markets is an AMM-style prediction market platform that allows news readers to take financial positions on their opinions of the information presented in a news article. It features embedded prediction markets on the crypto news site Decrypt.

Trading terminals and bots, the second type of prediction market platforms, feature front-end interfaces and tools that make it easier for market participants to participate in prediction markets. This includes AI bots that make it easy for users to launch markets and source alerts that point to highly profitable event contracts ranked by probability of favourable resolution. This includes platforms like Kash Bot and Prediqt.

The third and final type includes platforms that drive engagement by integrating elements of DeFi. Examples include GondorFi - a DeFi protocol that allows users to borrow against open Polymarket positions, unlocking liquidity without closing trades. It effectively seeks to improve capital efficiency via collateralised lending.

This is but a limited list of all the prediction market platforms in web3. To dive deeper, we recommend you give this ecosystem megathread by X user Lili a read. What a time to be alive.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* India Stocks: Can booming stock market spillover into crypto?
* Global Inflation: China struggles with deflation whilst we have inflation. What impact might this trend have on crypto?
* Lisa Cook: Attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor and what this means for markets?
* Crypto Exchange IPOs: What these reveal about investor appetite & the broader market cycle?
* Stablecoin Reaction: How is the world reacting to US regulation & what it means for CBDCs?
* How To Take Profit? This is how you secure your gains!

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Ethereum Treasuries Explained: Everything You Need to Know
* Ripple or Aptos? Comparing Blockchain Strategies for Global Finance
* Mastering Pionex Grid Bots: A Complete 2025 Guide
* Mastering Your Crypto Exit: Strategies for Successful Selling In 2025
* Secure Your Dogecoin with the Best Wallets For 2025
* How Secure Is Trust Wallet for Your Crypto
* The Ultimate Guide to the Top ZenGo Wallet Alternatives

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

The longest wait is sometimes the most rewarding - especially in crypto.

"Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait." - Charlie Munger

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.