Crazy Bullish on Crypto - Here’s Why!

For those of us who hold altcoins, 2025 has been a tough year so far. Bitcoin has been constantly reaffirming its status as the dominant digital asset, as new investors pile into it via ETFs, companies start hoovering up BTC for their treasuries and nation states create strategic reserves. So, are altcoins doomed as an asset class and what does the future hold for ‘crypto’ more broadly?

Well, according to some recent findings from Gemini, the answer appears to be ‘a heck of a lot.’ The exchange has released a report, which surveyed over 7,000 people in major economies like the US, France, Australia and the UK - among others - and its findings indicate that better times are indeed ahead. Crypto ownership is on the rise, young people are getting into it in increasing numbers and even memecoins aren’t perhaps as bad for the space as many consider them to be.

So, in today’s video, we unpack Gemini’s report and give you all the juiciest bits to chew on. Crypto is becoming more mainstream with every passing day - an important thing to remember, especially at times when the charts are a bloodbath. This race is for the strong, not the swift.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

Let’s start with the worry foremost in everyone’s mind at the moment. At the time of writing, Israel and Iran are on the brink of a full-blown war following Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Given how rapidly the situation is evolving, it’s possible that it has escalated or been resolved by the time you read this newsletter. Unfortunately, the former seems likely, and its implications can’t be understated.

That’s because one of the many ways Iran could respond to Israel’s attacks is to close the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage above the Arabian peninsula through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes. In case you missed the news, the UK Navy issued a warning to vessels passing through the strait, foreshadowing potential escalation there.

If Iran was to close the Strait of Hormuz (which would apparently be done by planting/launching mines into the sea passage), then oil prices could spike. JP Morgan recently warned that oil prices could rise above $100 as a result of such escalation, and it's likely that they could go even higher than that. This too would have profound implications.

On the one hand, an oil price spike would raise inflation globally, potentially forcing central banks to raise interest rates in response. On the other hand, the resulting inflation and potential rate hikes would do enormous damage to the global economy, potentially setting the stage for a stagflationary recession, which is already a risk due to Trump’s tariffs.

For what it’s worth, these dynamics mean that the only chart you need to watch to get a sense of what’s going on is the oil price. If oil prices are spiking, that means the conflict is getting worse. If they’re declining, that means the conflict is moving closer to resolution. It’s also worth noting that the US could drain its strategic petroleum reserve to offset any price spikes.

The real question is how the Fed will respond if the Israel-Iran conflict continues to escalate. In case you missed the memo, the Fed’s next meeting is this Wednesday. Rate cuts are not expected, but this could change if markets crash in response to escalation in the Middle East. At the very least, the Fed could foreshadow more easing in its updated policy forecast (the summary of economic projections, or SEP).

This would be an interesting set-up, because it would be eerily similar to what we saw in April. To refresh your memory, there was lots of speculation that Trump was purposely tanking the markets with his tariff threats to encourage investors to buy US bonds and force the Fed to lower rates. If that was the plan, it didn’t work, but Middle East escalation could do the trick.

Consider that the CPI and PPI for May both came in lower than expected last week. To put things into perspective, this is the third month in a row that inflation has come in below expectations. At the same time, there have been signs of economic weakness around the margins, and an exogenous shock like a war in the Middle East could amplify this weakness.

The Fed presumably knows this, which would put immense pressure on the central bank to ease, or at least foreshadow additional easing. But again, this assumes that we will see continued escalation. It appears that the Trump administration is determined to find a diplomatic solution to the tensions between Iran and Israel. Whether they will succeed remains to be seen.

Last but not least, there are a few crypto catalysts to keep on your radar. The first is the potential passing of the GENIUS Act in the Senate, which could happen this Tuesday. In case you didn’t know, the GENIUS Act is one of two bills related to stablecoin regulations making their way through Congress, the other being the STABLE Act, which is coming from the House.

Even though the GENIUS Act is likely to pass the Senate, it could face hurdles in the House precisely because there’s a competing stablecoin bill in progress there. Even so, the GENIUS Act passing the Senate could be a bullish tailwind for the crypto market, assuming the macro isn’t falling apart because of the Middle East, and many TradFi companies are getting ready for the Act’s Senate approval.

The second crypto catalyst to watch out for is the so-called ‘exemptive relief framework’ from the SEC, which would basically legalize all crypto activities in the US, particularly on-chain activities. The SEC’s recent move to scrap all Gensler-era crypto rule proposals suggests they’re preparing to do exactly that, and it’s possible that it could happen as soon as this week.

The final crypto catalyst to watch is one that nobody is paying attention to, and that’s the BTC Prague conference in the Czech Republic, which begins on Thursday. In case you forgot, the Czech National Bank has previously expressed interest in adding BTC to its balance sheet. If they have decided to do it, it’s possible this will be revealed at the aforementioned BTC Prague conference.

Taken together, this all suggests that the first half of next week could be extremely bearish, with the second half of next week potentially being extremely bullish. Whatever happens, it looks like it will be very volatile, so prepare yourselves accordingly. Not financial advice.

💰 Plasma Decoded 💰

Plasma, one of the potentially most impactful crypto infrastructure projects to emerge recently, began its token sale ‘process’ this week. While most of you may have heard of Plasma and its XPL token sale in passing, the specific details about what it does, or its significance for the future of crypto may have passed you by.

In fact, details about its recent token sale process are muddied with misinformation on CT and in the crypto media. The uninformed understanding of its token sale at this moment is that the project sold $500 million or even $1 billion worth of its XPL token in an ICO.

In reality, Plasma’s token ‘sale’ is yet to happen. The recent news about its deposit pools being quickly filled in a matter of minutes relates to the upcoming token sale’s whitelist mechanism. You see, Plasma’s actual token sale will see 10% of its supply being sold at a valuation of $500 million. In other words, the actual money being raised from the upcoming token sale is just $50 million (not $500 million, or $1 billion).

To determine who gets to buy these tokens, the Plasma team announced a unique whitelisting mechanism that invited interested participants to deposit stablecoins in a vault. For every dollar deposited, these users earn points that will determine their guaranteed allocation in Plasma’s upcoming sale of XPL. The deposit vaults used a time-weighted points mechanism – meaning that points were credited per dollar every minute. Users were free to deposit and withdraw as per their convenience until the vault hit its maximum limit. Anticipating high demand, the team initially announced that the total deposit limit in the vault would be capped at $250 million.

However, when deposits went live on the 9th June, the vault was quickly filled in a matter of minutes. This prompted the team to further raise the vault’s deposit limit to $500 million in order to let more people have a chance at being whitelisted for the sale of XPL. This deposit cap increase to $500 million was itself filled within an hour of going live. Listening to community feedback, the team announced a second deposit cap increase a day later to $1 billion – which again filled in 30 minutes.

With the deposit cap hit, user deposits in the vault are now locked until the Plasma mainnet goes live sometime in H2 2025. Once mainnet goes live, these depositors can withdraw their funds in full. In the meantime, the deposits will accrue points that make participants eligible for a certain allocation of XPL in the upcoming token sale. To clarify, eligible participants will have to pay to purchase XPL during the actual token sale. There’s no clarity yet on when the token sale will occur.

That said, why is there so much demand for Plasma and its XPL token? To put it into numbers, nearly 3,000 unique wallets decided to collectively lock $1 billion in stablecoins in a smart contract vault with no definite unlock timeline. That’s a lot of liquidity to risk, especially with markets likely preparing to go another leg higher in Q3 this year.

Well, to find the answer to that question, you need to understand what Plasma is and how it’s tied to Tether. The textbook description of Plasma is that it’s functionally a Bitcoin side chain specially designed to facilitate high-volume stablecoin transfers. It runs an EVM-compatible execution layer that allows applications on the EVM to deploy on Plasma mainnet easily. At its core, it offers three unique value propositions - zero-fee USDT transfers (no gas); custom gas tokens (the network’s fee system accepts USDT or BTC to pay gas for transactions); and confidential transactions (private transactions that conceal transaction details).

However, the value discovery goes deeper. To borrow an analogy X user Jin put forth in their recent article, there are two types of stablecoin capital – street dollar and enterprise dollar. As Jin explains, street dollar refers to stablecoins used for everyday payments, such as USDT payments for goods and services, or small-value transactions. On the other hand, enterprise dollar refers to stablecoins being used to farm yield in DeFi protocols on Ethereum and its Layer 2s. It’s the programmable dollar, in other words. Due to their differing purposes and existing infrastructure limitations, street dollars and enterprise dollars exist in silos away from each other. For instance, low fee blockchains like Tron dominate street dollar liquidity, while DeFi powerhouse blockchain Ethereum with its deep pools of onchain capital - despite high gas costs - dominates enterprise dollar liquidity.

The problem with this is that users who need both street dollars and enterprise dollars often need to maintain capital across different chains for specific needs. Plasma’s focus on no-cost USDT transfers, coupled with its EVM compatibility, makes it the perfect solution for users looking to leverage both street dollars and enterprise dollars. Gasless USDT transfers with high throughput transaction speeds makes it a stablecoin payment powerhouse.

Also, it gains credibility from its association with Tether. For context, Tether is deeply intertwined with Plasma - both as a backer and a strategic partner. Tether’s USDT is Plasma’s “first-class citizen,” with zero-fee transfers as a flagship feature. Tether’s CTO, Paolo Ardoino, serves on Plasma’s advisory board, and Bitfinex led its $3.5 million funding round in October 2024. Plasma’s integration with USDT0, a cross-chain USDT variant with $141 billion in supply, ensures deep liquidity from day one.

Not to mention, since it’s functionally a Bitcoin sidechain, Plasma could serve as a BTCFi project with native stablecoin liquidity. As X user Sam notes, Plasma has built its own Bitcoin bridge with a permissionless set of validators and has committed to using BitVM2 once it goes live. This will allow users to swap high volumes of BTC at low spreads and borrow stables against native BTC – allowing it to effectively become a hot bed for BTC/USDT activity.

Also, the valuation of its public token sale is the same as its most recent equity raise led by Founders Fund. This means that its token sale price is at par with that offered to some VCs – helping retail investors feel like they’ve received a fair deal. To be honest though, that’s just a smoke and mirrors tactic. Regardless, Plasma is definitely one to watch in the days ahead.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Bitcoin Control: How are powerful players influencing BTC?
* Tesla Redemption: Is there a path forward after political backlash?
* Galaxy Report On Leverage: The amplification of market boom and bust?
* The Fourth Turning: The theory believed by billionaires and what it means for us?
* Bretton Woods: The rise and fall of our modern monetary system…

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* An In-Depth Review of Solflare: Is This The Right Wallet For You?
* Complete Momentum Finance Guide: Swaps, LP Strategies & Rewards
* A Beginner’s Guide On How To Buy & Sell AI Agents on Virtuals Protocol
* Everything You Need to Know About WhiteBIT Exchange

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Small steps every day compound to big gains over time. Avoid the noise. Keep your focus. DCA and it shall set you free.  

"Great things are not done by impulse, but by a series of small things brought together." - Vincent Van Gogh

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.