Global Recession Incoming?

We have entered a period of deep uncertainty. Trump’s tariff talk has spooked global markets, all while a number of major economies are already feeling the strain. Is a recession inevitable, or can we wriggle out of it?

Of course, as painful as a global recession would be, it would also present quite an opportunity for those who were prepared and ready for it. Indeed, perhaps it would be better to take the hit now rather than wait any longer. Only once everything has collapsed can we start rebuilding.

In today’s video, we look at why the word ‘recession’ is being bandied about so much and assess the likelihood of one happening. We examine the state of the world’s major economies and why they’re faltering. Plus, we speculate on what the ‘murder weapon’ might be that could finally deal the death blow to get a recession underway.

You can watch that video here.  

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

It’s going to be a big week for macro and for crypto. Starting with the macro, the Fed will announce its next interest rate decision this Wednesday. Given the lower-than-expected inflation print for February, declining economic indicators like consumer sentiment, and falling markets, it seems likely that the Fed will be dovish, be it in terms of interest rates or its balance sheet.

Notably, the Fed does not need to make any policy changes at this meeting to come across as dovish (CME futures currently anticipate no changes to policy). That’s because this meeting will include a Summary of Economic Projections or SEP, which will give the Fed’s forecasts on where it sees interest rates heading next. This is where the dovishness could come from.

The main thing to watch for on that front will be the Fed’s balance sheet policy. To refresh your memory, the Fed had noted in its previous meeting that it would consider reducing or stopping QT at its next meeting if the debt ceiling debate was still ongoing. Well, the debt ceiling debate is still ongoing. Reducing or stopping QT would be a net positive for market liquidity.

At the same time, the US government has been draining the Treasury General Account or TGA, which is basically its bank account at the Fed. Over 300 billion dollars has been spent into the economy from this account over the last month alone - a big liquidity injection. The caveat is that the upcoming tax season could result in a liquidity drain sometime in April as the TGA is refilled.

More importantly, the volatility we’ve seen in the markets in recent weeks is proof that rising liquidity is not sufficient for a market rally. Investors need certainty to invest in assets, especially risk assets like crypto. In case it wasn’t clear enough, Trump’s ongoing tariff threats and the resulting concerns around the economy have resulted in investors reducing their risk exposure.

The caveat in this case is that there could be another macro catalyst that increases investor certainty, and that’s a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. In case you missed the news, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire last week, and now ‘the ball is in Russia’s court.’ Obviously, a ceasefire is just the first step to a peace deal, but it would be a positive step nonetheless.

And of course, it’s going to take at least a few days and probably much longer for Russia to agree to ceasefire terms, if indeed Putin even wants a deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio specified in a press conference that it would take time for Russia to agree to the ceasefire deal, as was the case with Ukraine.

So there is a chance, albeit a slim one, that Russia could agree to a deal this week. Besides the fact that this could increase investor certainty around the margins, it would also provide at least some vindication of Trump’s unorthodox approach to foreign policy. Recall that Trump reportedly played a critical role in negotiating the ceasefire in the Middle East.

But then there’s Trump’s tariffs, with a second round of ‘economic’ tariffs set to be implemented on April 2nd according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. This round of tariffs could beat the markets back down if they get a relief rally this week as a result of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

With a fair bit of luck though, Fed dovishness, combined with a ceasefire deal, would be enough to make bullish crypto catalysts matter again. And, many such catalysts could be on the menu this week. In terms of regulations, Trump will likely approve the repeal of the IRS’s broker definition after the House and Senate voted to repeal. This will be bullish for DeFi and on-chain activity in general.

The Senate Banking Committee also recently approved the GENIUS stablecoin bill. The next step is for the Senate as a whole to vote on the bill, something that could likewise occur this week. This stablecoin bill may have a harder time passing through the House, however, given that there’s another stablecoin bill being tabled there, and also disagreement within the upper levels of the crypto industry about stablecoin regulation. Even so, any progress here is bullish.

On the altcoin front meanwhile, we have the listing of Solana futures on the CME tomorrow, something that could set the stage for spot Solana altcoin ETF approvals in the near future. Sui will also host its first gaming summit on Tuesday, something which could potentially reignite interest in GameFi. The SEC is also expected to drop its appeal against Ripple, which should be bullish for XRP.

Again, how much these bullish catalysts affect the crypto market depends on what happens with the macro. If the Fed is dovish at its upcoming meeting, or signals that it will ease interest rates in the future per the SEP, and if we get some news that increases investor certainty around geopolitics and Trump’s foreign policy, then this should be enough to give a boost to the markets, including crypto. But it’s too soon to say if this relief rally could turn into a recovery.

💰 BTC Corporate Treasury 💰

Last Wednesday, Nasdaq-listed video-sharing platform Rumble published a notice that revealed it had purchased 188 BTC for $17.1 million (roughly $91K per BTC). This move makes Rumble the latest in a growing list of publicly-traded firms that have adopted BTC as part of their corporate treasury strategy. However, Rumble’s BTC acquisition announcement did not come out of the blue. In fact, the firm had expressed its plan to do so as far back as November 2024, and even confirmed the completion of its first purchase (with redacted financials) in January 2025.

That said, Rumble’s latest announcement, which revealed the exact details of its investment, comes just a week after US president Donald Trump signed an executive order authorising the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). This is notable since the confirmation of an SBR by the world’s foremost superpower acts as a strong signal of confidence for the future of digital assets in the US and globally.

Not to mention how the US Securities and Exchange Commission – a long-time persecutor of the industry - has also begun softening its stance towards crypto under the new administration. The combination of these factors suggests that we’re likely at the base of a massive uptrend in the adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by entities around the world - one that could be propelled into force by the passing of legislation confirming the permanence of the SBR within the US financial system.

On that note, one of immediate signs of this adoption will be the rising number of publicly-traded firms incorporating BTC as a part of their corporate treasury. For context, corporate treasury management has traditionally focused on investments like cash equivalents, bonds, and other low-risk assets. However, rising inflation and low interest rates in recent years have pushed businesses to reconsider this strategy. Bitcoin’s unique status as ‘digital gold’, with a definite capped supply and highly liquid global market, makes it an attractive option for companies looking to diversify their treasury holdings.

In fact, a tweet from Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen revealed that public corporations purchased twice as much BTC in 2024 as in all previous years combined. While a large part of this accumulation was led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), it would be premature to conclude that Strategy is the sole proponent. In fact, there has been a noticeable uptick in the number of first-time BTC purchasers among publicly-traded firms in 2024 and 2025. These include the likes of Semler Scientific, Rumble, Genius Group, KULR Technology Group and Metaplanet, among others. A closer look will show that half of the new entrants came after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race. In our opinion, this is proof of a growing appetite for BTC.

The inclusion of BTC as a reserve asset in corporate treasuries is particularly compelling for firms operating in volatile markets, or regions with unstable currencies. Bitcoin’s decentralised nature offers protection against external shocks, such as political instability or monetary mismanagement. While small, we’re starting to see this adoption by firms in countries like Japan (Metaplanet) and India (Jetking Infotrain). This will likely accelerate in the months ahead, as the practice of holding BTC as part of a corporate treasury goes mainstream.  

In fact, just last week, Bitwise Invest announced the launch of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track publicly-traded companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. The top 10 holdings of the ETF, titled the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF (OWNB), includes: Strategy, MARA, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Boyaa Interactive, Metaplanet, Aker ASA, Bitfarms, BitFuFu and Galaxy Digital. The index is weighted by the amount of BTC owned by each firm, with the largest contributor capped at 20% for diversification purposes. The launch of this ETF will likely further the mainstream adoption of this strategy.

That said, the adoption of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries comes with its own risks – volatility chief among them. For instance, in the span of two weeks, BTC’s price swung from $78,000 on February 28th to $94,000 on March 3rd, before coming back to $82,000 by March 14th. This rollercoaster rewards bold players like Strategy, but tests risk tolerance to its limits.

Currently, there is no tested playbook or set strategy for companies to follow when it comes to responsible allocation of BTC within their treasuries. For instance, Saylor’s Strategy follows an aggressive allocation model, with its Bitcoin treasury being funded through a sophisticated mix of equity sales and low-cost debt. In theory, this approach could backfire if BTC crashes, however MSTR’s impressive stock price returns suggest market faith.

Japan’s Metaplanet, on the other hand, follows a moderate allocation model by funding its BTC purchases through the sale of zero-interest bonds and stock acquisition rights. Given the economic realities of the country it operates in, Metaplanet’s strategy provides it with sufficient protection against future inflation over a long timeframe. On that note, Rumble’s recent BTC acquisition funding strategy is arguably the least risky of the three, having funded the purchases purely through excess cash reserves.

The inevitable bear market will likely set the stage for one of these three approaches to become the gold standard for future BTC acquisition strategies. And of course, it will also inevitably reveal the true appetite for BTC as a reserve asset among corporations. For now, we sit tight and watch.

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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Crypto IPOs: Who's doing it and will it boost investor confidence?
* PayPal Mafia: How are they shaping crypto and tech policy in the US?
* Retail Returning: How big could the flood of retail be?
* US-China Trade War 2025: Could It Kick Off WW3?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Sonic Blockchain Review: A Deep Dive into Its Ecosystem!
* Exploring The Role Of Market Makers In Crypto
* Maximal Extractable Value (MEV): What Is, How It Works & Benefits
* BTCC Exchange 2025 Review: An In-Depth Analysis!
* Regenerative Finance (ReFi) Explained

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

You could never appreciate the joy of a bull market if you haven’t been through the despair of a bear market. Nothing shapes a hodler more than experiencing the ups and downs of crypto.

“We are healed from suffering only by experiencing it to the full.” - Marcel Proust

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.