Bitcoin Adoption: Are we LATE? Or Still Early?

Who is buying Bitcoin these days? Well, other than Michael Saylor, of course. With BTC now chopping sideways in the mid-$80k range as we wait for the next outburst from the White House, can we still claim to be early? Or is Bitcoin adoption nearing its peak?

When you live inside the crypto bubble, it can be easy to assume that pretty much everyone who isn’t Peter Schiff holds BTC, especially now that it can be accessed via spot ETF products. However, by some estimates, Bitcoin adoption as an asset is only just getting started.

In today’s video, we delve into a recent report which seeks to ascertain where exactly Bitcoin is at right now. We examine its claims that Bitcoin is where the internet was in the 1990s, that institutions have yet to properly arrive, and how concerns around miner centralisation are perhaps overblown. It may feel like we’ve all been at the party for a long time now, but in truth many more have yet to get through the door.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

It’s been two months since Trump’s tariff threats started spooking the markets, and it looks like the grand finale to this saga will be occurring this week. As you’ve probably heard, the Trump administration is planning on implementing ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on select countries starting this Wednesday, April 2nd, and it sounds like these will not be as severe as initially anticipated.

The caveat is that some tariffs are going to stick. This was made clear when Trump announced a 25% tariff on all auto imports, and it suggests that we could see similar tariffs levied this week. This possibility is likely why the markets have been on edge. The silver lining is that by the end of this week, we should know which tariffs will stick, and which ones were the stick, so to speak.

This is a reference to the fact that many of Trump’s tariffs appear to have been related to foreign policy rather than economic policy; they were a means of coercing other countries to comply with the wishes of the Trump administration. These threats seem to be working, as the EU recently announced it would limit fines on American Big Tech companies like Apple and Meta.

The fact is that most countries are too economically fragile to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs in any meaningful way. Whereas Trump’s auto tariffs foreshadow more economic tariffs this week, the response by the EU and the lack of retaliation from countries like Canada suggests that we could see more concessions later this week, which could be supportive around the margins.

And on Friday, the unemployment data for March will be published. To refresh your memory, the unemployment rate for February rose by 0.1%, from 4.0% to 4.1%. Given that the unemployment rate has been steadily rising over the last year, chances are that it will rise again in March. If it does, this will increase the chances that the Fed will cut rates at its May meeting.

It’s not just the unemployment trend either. Trump’s tariff threats have reportedly caused a quarter of businesses to scale back their hiring plans. When you remember that March was the peak of this tariff turmoil, you realize this is when companies scaled back their hiring plans the most. Logically, this is likely to be reflected in higher unemployment data for March.

On the crypto front, there don’t seem to be any major catalysts on the horizon for the next week, but it is worth noting the recent strength in select GameFi cryptos. Sui springs to mind here, and though it initially seems to have rallied because of the launch of the Walrus protocol and its respective token, the corresponding rallies we’ve seen in other GameFi-focused cryptos like Toncoin and Avalanche could be early signs of GameFi being in the spotlight.

In terms of specific catalysts, the upcoming launch of Off The Grid’s GUN token could be the one that shines some light on GameFi. For those unfamiliar, Off the Grid is one of the most highly anticipated crypto games. It’s worth noting that the recent repeal of the IRS’s expanded broker definition could be the structural shift required for GameFi to come into focus.

Meanwhile, the Senate is set to vote on a stablecoin bill that was recently approved by one of its committees and the same process is about to begin in the House. It’s too soon to say which stablecoin bill will become law, nor when, but things are moving along quickly, it seems.

In sum then, it’s likely to be a volatile week on the macro front, but this volatility could be to the upside. It ultimately depends on the details of the reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday and the unemployment data on Thursday. Bullish outcomes for both would create the macro conditions required for crypto catalysts to affect crypto prices positively, with GameFi cryptos potentially benefiting the most.

😨 Hyperliquid Problems 😨

Last week, popular decentralised perps DEX Hyperliquid experienced a second attack on its HLP vault in less than a month. This time, the attack (which threatened to potentially wipe off the entirety of the vault’s deposits) and the protocol’s response to the attack have left many market participants questioning whether Hyperliquid really is as ‘decentralised’ as it claims to be.

Before we dive into that discussion, here’s the TLDR on what happened.

On March 26th, a group of three Hyperliquid accounts controlled by a single trader opened two long positions ($2.15M and $1.9M) and one short position ($4.1M) with high leverage on $JELLYJELLY - a memecoin associated with the video-sharing app launched by the founders of Venmo.

This trader then intentionally triggered the liquidation of their short position by pulling out the margin from said short, while simultaneously spot-buying the $JELLYJELLY token on other DEXs. Given that the market cap of $JELLYJELLY was around $12M during this trade, the trader required just a few million dollars to drastically swing the price of the token on spot markets. This resulted in the market cap of $JELLYJELLY pumping from $12M to $50M in less than an hour.

In simple terms, the trader’s short position was incurring losses and heading towards liquidation, while their long positions were accumulating profits. However, given the size of the trader’s short position, Hyperliquid would have had to execute buy orders for nearly 40% of $JELLYJELLY’s token supply in order to close the short, significantly pumping the price and placing bad debt on its order book.

In situations like this where the liquidation orders themselves would crash the market, Hyperliquid executes a backstop liquidation order through its protocol liquidation vault called the ‘HLP vault.’ Essentially, the HLP vault is a user-funded, protocol-managed liquidity source that deals with the slow and delta-neutral/profitable closure of losing leverage trades taken by Hyperliquid users. It takes over both the losing position and the user’s remaining collateral. X user DeFiCheetah does a great job explaining this mechanism in detail in his recent article – we recommend you give it a read for a more technical understanding.

The goal of the trader’s manoeuvre was to force Hyperliquid’s HLP vault to absorb the losses of their short position while profiting off the resulting short squeeze through their two long positions. At the peak $JELLYJELLY market cap of $50M, the HLP vault faced a loss of $12M on its $JELLYJELLY short position. Since the $220M worth of liquidity present in the HLP vault is funded by users, booking this loss meant users would lose a significant portion of the deposits. Any further price rises would increase the losses borne by HLP - thus, the protocol had to make a decision fast, or risk facing a bank run from depositors.

To add fuel to the flames, centralised exchanges saw this as an opportunity to run user confidence in Hyperliquid into the ground. They announced they would be listing futures contracts for $JELLYJELLY on their platforms – potentially driving more volume and volatility for the price of $JELLYJELLY.

In response, Hyperliquid announced that it was freezing and delisting $JELLYJELLY perps from its platform. It also manually changed the platform’s oracle price for $JELLYJELLY to $0.0095 when closing user positions. Notably, this oracle price was 80% lower than the actual market price of $0.05, allowing HLP to close the position for a small profit of $700K rather than a massive loss of $12M.

The whole ordeal has left a few questions lingering in the minds of industry participants.

First, is Hyperliquid really decentralised?

The platform’s decision to manipulate oracle prices was deemed controversial, since it essentially bends the rules of the platform to suit its circumstances. Not to mention, the fact that the validator quorum to change oracle prices was reached in less than two minutes rather screams ‘centralisation’. This had led to some describing Hyperliquid as a centralised exchange operating illegally by pretending to be a decentralised platform. Regardless, supporters and users of the platform appear to be happy, since the decision has resulted in their deposits remaining protected.

Second, did the trader execute an exploit of the platform?

Technically, this incident isn’t a hack or exploit. However, it’s still illegal since this is a black and white case of market manipulation. In fact, we saw something similar last cycle when a trader named Avraham Eisenberg claimed to have executed a “highly profitable trading strategy” on Mango Markets.

Third, are centralised exchanges threatened by Hyperliquid’s presence?

It’s safe to say that the response to the incident is a clear indication that they consider Hyperliquid to be a serious business competitor. There are also a few tin foil hat theories that the attack may have been executed by a group of centralised exchanges. Regardless, the whole incident makes clear that Hyperliquid’s risk management measures need to be significantly strengthened to prevent similar occurrences in the future.  

Since the incident, Hyperliquid has announced a number of changes to the platform, including making open interest caps on perps dynamic relative to market cap, delisting assets that fall beneath certain thresholds, and placing a tight cap on the risk assumed by the HLP.

Only time will tell if these measures can sufficiently protect Hyperliquid from future attacks and if regulators could potentially start investigating the protocol’s decentralised operations. $HYPE holders are in for a bumpy ride in the short term, that’s for sure.

🫵 We Want You 🫵

At the Coin Bureau, we are dedicated to creating top-quality crypto educational content for our audience. But here’s a secret: it takes way longer than 20 minutes for both Nic and Guy to present a video - what you don’t see is the practice, outtakes, along with all the other business they must juggle.

The Coin Bureau will always be focused on high-quality content. However, we have reached a bottleneck where we cannot put out more videos with our current team, and we need a NEW crypto content presenter to join Nic and Guy and help us create even more content for you guys!

Who are we looking for?

* Excellent communications skills (verbal and written), and the ability to collaborate with people from all backgrounds. Accents are fine, however, it is key for the candidate to speak in a way that is readily understandable for viewers for whom English is a second language.
* We are flexible on the age range of the candidate. However, they must be willing to commit to the role for the long term.
* Great interpersonal & listening skills
* Adaptable & confident
* Someone based in Dubai or willing to relocate to Dubai and work directly with our content team
* Willingness to travel

Responsibilities:

* Excellent delivery of scripted or semi-scripted content
* Rehearse scripts
* Organize meetings, interviews and schedules
* Be able to produce short-form content
* Availability to travel from one event to another

Want to join the Coin Bureau Team and seize this unique opportunity, with competitive compensation? Submit your CV and a 5-minute pilot video showcasing your original work or previous content you have created to [email protected]

🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮

* Silver Undervalued? Why might this commodity be worth looking at?
* Coinbase Survey: What did they find about institutions?
* Bybit Hack Update: What happened to the funds & what it might mean for us?

🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Explore The Best Regenerative Finance Projects
* Discover the Top Kraken Alternatives to Trade In 2025!
* Secure Your Pi Coins with the Top Wallets Today!
* AltVMs Explained: What It Is & Challenges
* Learn Cryptocurrency Online: The Best Courses to Get Started
* Exploring Meteora DEX: The Most Dynamic Liquidity Layer on Solana?

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

Hodling through this sideways chop can be frustrating and it challenges our mental resilience. But, it builds the fortitude required to secure those long term gains.

“Be patient and tough; someday this pain will be useful to you” - Ovid

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.