To paraphrase the writer Panait Istrati, we can see the broken eggs. Now, where’s the omelet we were promised? The Trump administration was supposed to usher in a ‘golden age of crypto’, yet our bags appear to be made of lead. What will it take for market conditions to improve?
Well, since you ask, there are a number of potential catalysts coming down the pipe that could help the market get its mojo back. Some are macro-focused, some crypto-focused, but all of them should be on your radar. And no, not all of them are to do with spot altcoin ETFs.
In today’s video, we lay out the macro and crypto catalysts that could combine to get prices moving up and to the right once again. From big moves by the Fed to seismic developments in AI, (and yes, some spot altcoin ETFs), we look at all the reasons we should have to be optimistic about the future direction.
You can watch that video here.
📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈
The crypto market has been chopping and grinding for almost three months. Some cryptos, such as BTC, have been doing more chopping, whereas others like ETH have continued grinding lower. Obviously, this is ultimately due to the uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, which began at the start of February, and hit their apex with Liberation Day earlier this month.
However, since Liberation Day, we’ve arguably seen gradual improvement. First, Trump announced a 90-day ‘pause’ on tariffs to allow for negotiations. Then, he gave an exemption to key big tech products such as phones, laptops, and microchips. Now Trump is starting to signal that the de facto trade war between China and the US could start de-escalating.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that US officials could meet with Chinese officials this week as a result of the IMF and World Bank’s Spring Meetings in Washington, DC. Believe it or not, but this could be the first meeting between US and Chinese officials regarding tariffs since Liberation Day, and it’s worth noting that it may not even be a formal meeting.
Even so, it’s a small step towards resolving the biggest headwind that the markets, including crypto, have faced on the macro front. It seems that Bitcoin investors are starting to sniff out a potential resolution to the tariff uncertainty, as last week the spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows not seen since before the Liberation Day panic.
This is consistent with the recent uptick in Google search volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which could be an indication that investors are starting to look further down the risk curve. So far this has yet to materialize into meaningful price action, but it is likewise a small step towards investors allocating to assets they’ve been avoiding out of caution.
On the flipside, we have gold, which has been hitting record highs as a result of all the macro uncertainty. As most of you will know, one of the biggest buyers of gold has been China. What you may not know is that China is looking to push gold prices up to $3500-3600, at least according to macro analyst Michael Howell. If he’s right, then gold could be close to topping.
This is significant because Bitcoin appears to lag gold by around 100 days. Of course, gold began its most recent rally in early February, when the tariff uncertainty started. Assuming a 100-day lag, this suggests that Bitcoin could start following suit as early as May, which is only a couple of weeks away. Whether altcoins follow suit seems to depend on the Fed.
As you’ve probably heard, the Fed is very concerned that Trump’s tariffs will cause inflation, hence why it’s hesitant to ease monetary policy. The caveat is that the tariff negotiations are still ongoing. The outcome could be less inflationary than initially thought, but the Fed is not going to ease prematurely and risk a resurgence in inflation if the tariffs stay high.
Naturally, the result has been Trump publicly chastising Fed chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates in response to the recent fall in inflation. The catch is that the conditions for the Fed to cut rates have been made clear: the tariff negotiations need to wrap up, and the finalized tariffs need to be low enough not to meaningfully affect inflation in the long term.
If the Trump administration can get the tariffs sorted out by the Fed’s next meeting in early May, it is therefore possible that the Fed could be more accommodative in its monetary policy. Unfortunately, the likelihood of this happening currently appears to be quite low. This foreshadows another few weeks of chop and grind, though it may not be as brutal as it has been.
In sum then, the crypto market is likely in for another week of chop and grind, but it could be more chop than grind, and it’s even possible that the grind could be to the upside for some cryptos, namely BTC and select altcoins. Pro-tip: watch the AI agents niche. The recent pump in AI agent-themed cryptos such as Fartcoin could be early signs of a rally across related altcoins.
📉 Mantra Collapse 📉
Last week, the crypto market saw Mantra, the biggest real-world asset tokenisation protocol by market cap, go down in flames. Mantra’s OM token plummeted over 90% in a matter of hours, erasing more than $5.5 billion and triggering widespread panic.
Almost immediately after the price drop, people took to X to accuse the Mantra team of having orchestrated a rug pull. They claimed the price fall was likely caused by the team selling all their tokens on the open market, or being liquidated due to risky loans against their OM holdings.
In response, Mantra founder JP Mullin published a statement denying any sale or liquidations of the team’s OM holdings. Instead, he attributed the price collapse to “reckless” forced liquidations of OM positions initiated by centralised exchanges. He suggested that one unnamed exchange — explicitly not Binance — was primarily responsible, though he noted the team was still “figuring out the details.”
Since the release of this statement, netizens have uncovered and analysed additional data that suggests there’s some truth to Mullin’s statement – the price movements were likely not caused by the team selling tokens. Though this isn’t to say that the team is completely free of blame, we have yet to determine the identities of the actual perpetrators and their motivations.
While there’s no definitive answer on who caused the collapse just yet, CEX trade data recently investigated by independent analysts (ltrd and Dom) has begun to paint a clear picture of how it all unfolded. Here’s what we know so far:
The first downward move (-10%) to the $5 range was mainly due to moderate sell pressure from the OKX spot market, which started around 16:00 UTC. This sell pressure appears to have been organic. Two hours later, at around 18:00 UTC, the price of OM nosedived by roughly 50% to $2.5 in under a minute. According to ltrd, this plummet was caused by an entity taking massive short positions on OM in Binance’s perps market. They note seeing trades worth around $1 million every 5 seconds.
Given the low market liquidity over the weekend, each market order caused a huge market impact (-5%). We’ll note here that Mantra contends these were likely cascading forced liquidations of long positions, instead of aggressive shorts. That said, the independent analysts suspect these were shorts on the Binance perps market – ltrd described them as an “attack clearly designed to be fast, brutal, and with zero regard for cost.”
Following the 50% plummet caused by the entity on the Binance perps, the analysts note that data reveals an OM whale on the OKX exchange was starting to dump OM tokens (worth multi-millions) into the OKX spot market by placing marketable ask limit orders. They note these OKX spot trades came less than two minutes after the price movements began on the Binance perps market. This suggests that the OKX OM whale was either coordinating with the entity on the Binance perps market or was panic-selling as a result of the 50% drawdown.
Regardless, these ask limit orders caused the OKX spot price for OM to be pinned around $2.40 for over a minute, while the price of OM on other exchanges rose to $3+. This market divergence appears to have been the main driving force of the last part of the sell-off, with arbitrage traders, panic sellers, and low liquidity driving the price below $2.00.
As it stands now, there are three possible theories to explain this trading behaviour. The first theory is that the OKX OM whale was either forced to sell OM on spot to avoid liquidations, or was just freaked out seeing the shorts on Binance perps. This theory assumes the Binance perps entity and the OKX whale are unrelated to each other. It also assumes the Binance perps entity is a malicious short trader with access to massive capital. The second theory is that this may have been a coordinated attack on OM by one or more entities. This assumes that the Binance perps entity and the OKX whale are related or were working together.
The third theory is that the trading behaviour may have been prompted by insiders or people close to the team discovering potentially debilitating information about the project. It suggests that, regardless of relation, both the Binance perps entity and the OKX OM whale were moving to front-run the potential market dump ahead of the public discovery of such information.
We’ll caveat here that these are just theories to explain the irregular trading behaviour of these participants. As of the time of writing, there is no additional information to suggest if any of these theories are true. Until we get a more detailed post-mortem report or information from the relevant centralised exchanges as to the identity of these market participants, their motivations remain a mystery.
Regardless, the entire ordeal has highlighted crucial weaknesses with OM that may have led to this downfall. These include concerns about artificially inflated prices through low token float tactics. In a recent interview, internet detective Coffeezilla questioned Mantra founder JP Mullin about the project possibly manipulating prices through external market makers. Others have highlighted the relatively massive difference between the TVL on Mantra and its reported market capitalisation as being a sign of the project’s true token float being possibly much lower than reported.
In the meantime, the Mantra team is attempting to rebuild community trust by rolling out a multi-pronged recovery plan. This includes a “comprehensive burn program” that will involve the Mantra team burning the entire 300 million OM tokens allotted to them on the Mantra layer 1 chain. In our opinion, the road to redemption is going to be an impossibly tough one. Only time will tell.
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🔮 Video Pipeline 🔮
* Trump Tariff Update: Financial chaos and a deeper economic power behind the scenes?
* Insider Trading: Are American politicians lining their pockets?
* World Liberty Financial: What is it and what it means for crypto?
* Microstrategy Liquidation: What it means for Bitcoin?
* Trump & Jerome: Could the FED chair be dismissed and what are the impacts?
* Rare Earths: The deal and its potential impact on the world!
🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆
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* Discover The Top Wallet Alternatives to Exodus In 2025
* Crosschain, Omnichain, and Multichain Explained: What Are Their Differences?
* Discover the Top KuCoin Alternatives to Trade In!
* Make Money with Bitcoin In 2025: Best Methods for Passive & Active Income
* Understanding Multichain Technology: Concepts, Use Cases, and Comparisons
📖 Quote of the Week 📖
The biggest detriment to your long-term returns is not what you know, but how you react. Only when you contain your emotions can you invest wisely.
“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd” - Warren Buffet
Team Coin Bureau
Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.
The Coin Bureau Editorial Team are your dedicated guides through the dynamic world of cryptocurrency. With a passion for educating the masses on blockchain technology and a commitment to unbiased, shill-free content, we unravel the complexities of the industry through in-depth research. We aim to empower the crypto community with the knowledge needed to navigate the crypto landscape successfully and safely, equipping our community with the knowledge and understanding they need to navigate this new digital frontier.
