Script Got Flipped

What a difference a week can make. BTC is suddenly eyeing up $80K, crypto Twitter is beside itself with glee and not even continued cringe posts from Michael Saylor can dampen the mood. Below, we look at what ignited this turnaround and what we need for it to be sustained.

Meanwhile, despite the Clarity Act being stuck in development hell, the regulatory picture for crypto is starting to look a lot brighter. The SEC and CFTC are taking the initiative while Congress dithers and writing rules that have many observers recalling the heady days of 2017. Below, we set out what the proposed rules are and what they mean for the industry.

🐩 Fed Got Tamed 🐩

Former Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was a thorn in Donald Trump’s side, but now he’s out of the hotseat and the president has installed Kevin Warsh in his place. Warsh has struck a hawkish pose since he took office, suggesting that rate hikes may be needed and getting rid of the Fed’s forward guidance. Nevertheless, many believe this attitude is a front and the Fed is in fact set to do the administration’s bidding.

In today’s video, we examine Warsh’s close ties to the Treasury and the White House and look at why the Fed is beginning to lose credibility in the eyes of many market participants. We reveal just how deep Warsh’s relations with Trump and Bessent run and why the question of Fed independence is one that holders of gold and Bitcoin should pay close attention to.

You can watch that video here.

📈 Crypto Market Forecast 📈

Just when it looked like Bitcoin was firmly checked out for the summer, the past week just saw the most significant move in the crypto market since October last year. And, mercifully, this time it went in the opposite direction.

The week started with Bitcoin struggling in the $62,000-$64,000 range, capped by persistent selling and failed breakouts. Then on Wednesday, Scott Bessent announced that he would be doubling the Treasury's long-term bond buyback operations. Markets read this as a dollar liquidity signal - the government buying its own long-dated debt suppresses yields, weakens the dollar, and tells risk markets that financial conditions are easing rather than tightening. Bitcoin broke above $70,000 within hours, triggering a record $2.75 billion short liquidation event. The squeeze amplified the move but did not create it, as it appears spot buyers were already accumulating.

By the end of the week, Bitcoin had pushed to over $78,000 and the crypto market had added $280 billion in market cap. Spot ETFs attracted $2.2 billion in weekly inflows - the largest weekly figure of 2026. Year-to-date spot Bitcoin ETF flows have flipped back into positive territory for the first time since April.

Ethereum though was the standout performer, rising 20% in a single session to above $2,500, outperforming Bitcoin by more than two to one at the peak of the move. The ETH/BTC ratio is pushing above 0.032, approaching the 0.033 level that analysts have flagged as the clearest early signal of capital rotation into the broader altcoin market. This is not yet a confirmed altseason, but it is the most encouraging setup for Ethereum relative strength in months.

There’s just one thing that matters for the week ahead, and that is Jackson Hole. Kevin Warsh speaks as Fed chair for the first time at the annual central bank symposium, and the market has been front-running a dovish outcome all week. Bitcoin needs a clearer Fed shift to break above $80,000, and Warsh's words will be all-important. The September hike probability has fallen to ~39%, but Warsh has made clear he is not constrained by market pricing. If he signals continued data-dependence without hawkish bias, $80,000 becomes the next target. If he disappoints or signals that a rate hike is still on the table, then the rally will face its first serious test.

In sum then, the picture for Bitcoin is currently the best it’s looked all year. The technical structure has changed: BTC is above its 200-day moving average, above the resistance it failed to break past multiple times, and supported by genuine ETF inflow data rather than just short squeezes. The directional call for the coming weeks is bullish, with a conviction that we haven’t felt since spring. The base case is $80,000-$85,000 if Warsh is neutral to dovish. The risk is a hawkish surprise sending us back to $70,000-$72,000 for consolidation. We are likely not going back to $60,000 unless the economic data deteriorates significantly beyond current readings.

⛔ Regulated ICOs ⛔

It finally seems like optimism is returning among crypto traders as BTC and major altcoins painted the charts with long green candles this week. Some even suspect the bear market bottom may be behind us.

Analysts have pointed to a range of factors behind the renewed optimism, from macro developments (the US Treasury's surprise buyback announcement) to regulatory/political optimism (the recent high-stakes White House crypto meeting). The truth is probably some combination of the two, but the development that caught our eye the most was one on the regulatory front – a proposed SEC rulebook that permits the crypto industry to do something that the regulator previously spent nearly a decade fighting against.

We’re talking about the SEC’s recently proposed 402-page rulebook for crypto token offerings. For context, this proposal provides crypto projects with a path to sell tokens directly to the public without being subject to the more restrictive requirements under US securities law. Notably, many see this proposal as a catalyst that could reignite the crypto ICO boom last seen in 2017.

To give you the broad strokes, the proposal (bluntly titled ‘Regulation Crypto Assets’) has four moving parts - two exemptions from Securities Act registration, a conditional safe harbour that lets a token stop being wrapped in an investment contract, and a preemption of state securities registration that reaches into secondary trading.

The first exemption, which the SEC calls the startup exemption, is a one-time allowance for projects to distribute up to $5 million of tokens over a four-year period. It’s a rather liberal route that allows the issuer to sell, airdrop or distribute tokens to any buyer/user regardless of accreditation status. The tokens sold under this exemption are also freely resellable from day one. To top it off, it allows the issuer to skip financial statements altogether and go to market without anyone at the Commission qualifying the offering.

The only thing it asks of the issuer is a set of principles-based disclosures published on a website, in addition to two filings on its Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval (EDGAR) database, one at the start of the four-year window and one at the end.

The second exemption, which the SEC calls the fundraising exemption, is modelled on Regulation A and has two tiers. The first tier permits a raise up to $20 million, while the second tier permits a raise up to $75 million, both covering a 12-month period. Unlike the startup exemption, the fundraising exemption demands more obligations and paperwork from issuers. Notably, it requires issuers to be organised in the United States, have a majority of their executives or directors as US citizens or residents, hold more than half their assets domestically, and get an offering statement on a new Form 1-CRYPTO qualified by SEC staff before it can sell anything. The difference between the two tiers of the fundraising exemption is that Tier 2 offerings require audited financial statements, while Tier 1 offerings don’t impose audit requirements on the issuer’s financial statements.

Now, let’s talk about the conditional ’safe harbour’ that the proposal grants issuers under Rule 400. To put it simply, it allows a qualifying crypto asset to be excluded from counting as an investment contract once the issuer "has completed or permanently ceased all essential managerial efforts that it represented or promised it would take."

In other words, a crypto token can escape ‘security’ status as long as the issuer can file a certification saying it has completed, or permanently abandoned, every essential managerial effort it previously promised. Morrison Foerster, a law firm, notes that this rule skips the decentralisation test entirely. In other words, a fully centralised project can launch a token and then wash its hands off the token being a security as long as it files a certificate with the regulator showing how it has completed or permanently abandoned the managerial efforts it promised investors at the time of the offering.

It’s easy to see how this would be a problem. Not to mention, the fourth section of the proposal allows both exemptions and the safe harbour to pre-empt state securities registration. For those unfamiliar, it simply allows the SEC’s proposed rules to override any state law on the same subject. This is significant since the existing securities regulatory framework in the US has historically required an issuer to register or qualify its offering separately in every state where it is sold.

However, the latest proposal allows crypto token offerings to bypass this requirement through a technical trick. Specifically, it adds a new definition of ‘qualified purchaser’ under the Securities Act, which switches off state registration and qualification requirements for offerings made under the two exemptions. This bypass also extends to secondary trading, allowing tokens to trade on secondary markets without 50 separate filings.

But, doesn’t this mean that the SEC just introduced a potentially dangerous ICO rulebook?

Well, not exactly.

You see, thankfully nothing in the proposal prohibits state regulators from pursuing anti-fraud actions against bad actors. So, a state attorney general can still sue a project over a fraudulent token sale.

Also, the proposal purposefully declines to touch whether venues trading these assets must register as exchanges, brokers or dealers. It also only applies to a ‘covered investment contract,’ which specifically covers the ‘form’ of issuance rather than the token itself. In other words, the joint SEC and CFTC interpretation, issued back in March, still applies to whether a token itself is a security under the Act. This means that further legislation is required to answer some of the more complex legal questions around crypto legislation.

Not to mention, the SEC’s ‘Regulation Crypto Assets’ is still at the proposal stage. None of these rules apply just yet. It still needs to be published in the Federal Register and then undergo a  60-day comment period. If you combine this with another review at the White House Budget Office, a final vote and a second round of publication, it’s plain to see that the rules have a long way to go before they can be used by issuers. By most estimates, this would take another year at the earliest. Nothing has changed for issuers in the present day.

That said, this rulebook is part of an attempt by the SEC to force Congress into action on the legislative front, as progress on the Clarity Act has remained stalled since May. The latest SEC proposal is an attempt by the agency to put pressure on Congress. Notably, SEC chairman Paul Atkins has been publicly urging Congress to send Clarity to the President's desk since May. In his statement accompanying the proposal, Atkins also argued that legislation remains indispensable, since rules written by one commission can be reversed by the next.

For now, the SEC’s proposal is nothing more than an early draft. If anything, it reminds us that conversations and policies over the next year will shape how crypto assets are treated by regulators in the decades to come. Pay attention anon!

🔥 Hot Deal Of The Week 🔥

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Whether you want to race up the individual leaderboard, join forces with other traders or complete challenges for additional rewards, TIFT gives you plenty of ways to get involved. But the clock is already ticking, and every day you wait is another day of the tournament gone. Don’t watch from the sidelines, click the link below, sign up to Toobit, register for TIFT 2026 and start competing for your share of the 3 MILLION USDT prize pool today.

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🏆 What's New at CoinBureau.com This Week? 🏆

* Kraken Wallet Review 2026: Is It Safe and Worth Using?  
* Is Crypto.com Safe? Security, Insurance and Risks Explained
* Solflare Wallet Review 2026: Is It Safe and Worth Using?  
* Crypto Scams to Avoid in 2026: How to Spot, Verify and Stop Them
* Explore The Top XRP Wallets To Secure Your Ripples In 2026
* Crypto Trading Hours: What Is the Best Time to Trade Crypto?
* What Is Bitget Stocks 2.0? rToken, Stock+ and Stock Trading Explained

Press Release

* Toobit Reveals TIFT 2026 Tracks and $3M Pool Prizes

📖 Quote of the Week 📖

"In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer." - Albert Camus

Team Coin Bureau

Disclosure: Authors may own cryptoassets named in this newsletter. These are unqualified opinions, and a Coin Bureau newsletter, is meant for informational purposes only. It is not meant to serve as investment advice. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal advisor.